This Week in Barrons: 03.01.2026

• After a weekend of unprecedented strikes and counterstrikes between the U.S., Israel, and Iran – the fog of war is thick.  Depending upon who you ask, the Iranian leader was either a target or a survivor – with the truth being somewhere in between. As markets open this week, watch oil prices, the Strait of Hormuz, and the “inflation shock” that follows energy spikes. Let’s all hope for a speedy end to the war.

• Jamie Dimon: “Markets have 2007 leverage, and a lot of people doing a lot of dumb things.”

• Pres. Trump: “Anthropic – they are nut-jobs. We will not do business with them again.”

• Market view:  Sector rotation is failing and managers are running out of options. The major S&P drivers are weakening:

  o Energy... is up ~20% but too small to move the index.

  o Financials... are down ~8% YTD despite expectations they’d benefit from higher rates.

  o Big Tech... is mostly flat or struggling (Google, Apple, Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft).

  o That leaves... nothing. AI has shifted from the dominant growth theme to a perceived systemic risk.  When rotation fails, correlations rise and markets tend to move together – likely downward.  With weak support near 6850 and no strong sector leadership, broad selling appears more probable than a synchronized rally.  Rather than chasing sector rotations, continue to focus on companies that can withstand a downturn.

•  War brings confusion.  Try to remember: Who’s your customer?’:  Try and serve your customers’ goals even if their perspectives differ from yours.  Focus on helping them progress and creating meaningful outcomes.

• War brings out the worst in us: The The Pentagon (while threatening contract termination and blacklisting) tried to pressure Anthropic into removing the AI safeguards from Claude. Anthropic and Google both refused to remove the safeguards, but OpenAI was there to say ‘YES’. The way our government negotiates raises serious concerns over future governmental pressures on AI’s safety practices.

• Tariffs and trade:  After the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, the administration quickly imposed a 10% global tariff under Section 122 and later raised that to the 15% legal maximum.  The measure lasts 150 days while Section 301 investigations prepare longer-term “fair tariff” rates.  Tariff revenue is expected to remain unchanged, with our allies such as the UK, EU, and Japan most affected.

• AI disruption: “AI doesn’t just replace one skill.  AI is a substitute for all of your cognitive work.”  A recent AI-driven security analysis exposed long-standing software vulnerabilities in popular software packages.  This immediately wiped billions from cybersecurity company valuations and quickly demonstrated AI’s ability to undermine entire business models.

• Gold accumulation:  Central banks bought more gold in 2025 than at any time since 1967.  Countries like China, Poland, Hungary, Singapore, and Turkey – are dumping U.S. debt and buying gold.  This isn’t a trend, but rather a panic.  After the U.S. froze Russia’s assets, the world learned a hard lesson: there’s only one asset no one can freeze – Gold.

• The era of $1T annual S&P buybacks driven by hyperscalers is ending.

• Consumer stress is rising: ~13% of credit card balances are 90+ days delinquent — second highest on record after the financial crisis.

• Wealth concentration: The top 1% now hold ~$42T in assets vs ~$20T for the entire middle class.

• Structural shifts: Data center construction is expected to exceed office construction by EOY.

• Supply chain realignment: Apple is shifting Mac Mini production for U.S. markets to Houston to mitigate tariff and geopolitical risk.

• Market weakness: Software stocks saw their worst three-month decline in 30 years.

• Deal environment: M&A funding fell to a 30-year low in 2025 despite ~$5T in deal value.

• Private credit stress: A $1.6B Blue Owl fund restricted withdrawals and is selling their loan portfolio to raise case.  This raises liquidity concerns surrounding the entire $1.8T private credit market. 

•  Toyota’s Canadian RAV4 plant will deploy humanoids... from Agility Robotics this spring.  It will be one of the first live factory integrations of bipedal robots alongside a human workforce.

• Rork launched Rork Max... a web tool designed to build and ship full-featured Apple apps (AR/3D, flight trackers, chatbots) with almost one-click App Store publishing.  It’s powered by Swift, Anthropic’s Claude Code, and Opus 4.6.

• Tech firms are making AI mandatory... performance reviews will track AI usage, hiring will screen for it, and business fundamentals are being repriced using a new AI headcount.

• The AI selloff hit more than equities... it also froze IPOs and M&A exits.

• Jack Dorsey (former Twitter CEO, current Block CEO) announced... a 40% workforce reduction (~4,000 roles), citing AI’s redefinition of how companies are built and operated.

•  Q: What’s up with gold, silver & the CME?

  o Ans: A “technical issue” halted metals and natural gas derivatives on the CME Group’s Globex platform at 1pm ET last Wednesday.  It interrupted soaring gold ‘n silver buying and triggered immediate spot selling.  It raised skepticism about the timing and the asymmetry of such outages.  After all, When’s the last time the CME halted trading when assets were falling?

• Q: Is Jane Street trying to manipulate the market in SLV?

  o Ans: Jane Street recently became one of the majority holders of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV).  Their playbook goes something like this: (a) build a large equity position, (b) wait for the bullish sentiment to cheapen Put options, (c) load up on Put options, (d) dump the SLV shares to spark a cascade (stop-losses, panic selling), (e ) Sell the Put options, (f) Rinse ‘n Repeat.  This kind of manipulation is unhealthy for any market.  It continues to amaze me how regulatory authorities turn a blind eye to such practices.

• Q: Is Samsung still a competitor to Apple:

  o Ans:  Samsung is currently integrating Perplexity into its Galaxy AI... so that you can summon the AI task engine by saying “Hey Plex: book me an Uber to the airport for 4pm.”  The Galaxy S26 includes: “Now Nudge” for contextual AI prompts, an upgraded Bixby for natural-language device control, multi-step AI agents to handle difficult tasks such as scheduling a business lunch, and the S26 Ultra “Privacy Display.”  This strategy positions Galaxy AI as an ambient assistant while diversifying across AI ecosystems and remaining a credible competitive threat to Apple.

•  I’m worried about next week’s market:

  o The S&P 500 has been range-bound (6750–7000) ... through most of 2026 with a flat advance-decline line.  That tells me we’re seeing rotation without conviction.

  o Risk-off positioning is accelerating... in bonds (TLT) breaking higher, gold ‘n silver near highs, VVIX ~110, and defensive sectors (XLP, XLU) outperforming tech mega-cap weakness.

  o The VIX hit 23 despite indexes sitting ~100 points off February lows... signaling that volatility risk is not totally reflected in prices as of yet.

  o Stress is building beneath the surface: Regional banks and private credit are weakening; Microsoft is below $400, Alphabet Inc. is testing $300, and Nvidia earnings failed to lift the markets.

  o Block, Inc. layoffs were tied to AI... raising demand concerns about future AI spending.  [i.e. Who is going to spend big bucks on AI products while they’re standing in the unemployment line?]

  o Next week’s expected S&P move ≈ $144... with ~85% odds of testing range extremes after unusually quiet trading.

  o Market leadership from staples/utilities rather than growth... signals defensive institutional positioning.

• If you like Defense: (War-Risk Exposure)

  o Key contractors include: (a) Lockheed Martin (LMT F-35 jets, missiles, and systems heavily used by the US and Israel), (b) the RTX Corporation (RTX Tomahawk missiles, radar, and Iron Dome components), Northrop Grumman (NOC Bombers, drones, and ICBMs), General Dynamics (GD Tanks, submarines, and combat systems), and Boeing (BA == Defense aircraft and systems).

• What’s not to like in Energy? (Geopolitical Oil Risk)

  o The Strait of Hormuz is a disruption risk and could push crude toward the $90 to $100+ level.

  o Integrated majors: Chevron (CVX), and ExxonMobil (XOM) == Major integrated oil giants and higher prices boost revenues. Chevron also has regional gas assets. 

  o Oilfield services: Halliburton (HAL), Schlumberger (SLB) and Transocean (RIG) == Already rallying on recent tensions, will benefit from increased US shale drilling when prices rise.  Add RIG as their drilling rigs in the gulf will become vital.

  o Broader hedge: The Energy ETF (XLE) has historically cushioned portfolios in crises (e.g., the XLE rose +64% in the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion while the S&Ps fell -18%).

•  I personally like Gold & Silver:

  o Producers Barrick Gold (B), Newmont Mining (NEM), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), and higher-beta movers like: Kinross Gold (KGC) and Harmony Gold (HMY).

• The following Institutional cash-flow signals are telling me:

  o Institutions are hedging to the downside by buying: KRE May $63 Puts, XLF Apr $47 Puts, and larger quantities of Wells Fargo March $77 Puts, and IWM Mar $256 Puts.

  o Institutions are buying precious metals: Large amounts of the GLD May call spread (+$495 / -$570) are being purchased ... signaling expectations for materially higher gold prices.

• Unfortunately, the Business Calendar arrives this week:  Last week raised the bar without blowing anything up. Software stocks had a hard reset. Loan desks are quietly tightening liquidity. Loan payback timelines are becoming stretched. Refund settlements slowed, and semi-liquid products faced real questions about exit speed. Nothing snapped, but the tone shifted. This week brings manufacturing surveys, services data, job cuts, jobless claims, payrolls, retail sales, and inventory data. It also brings earnings from companies that sit directly on top of the market’s pressure points: precious metal miners, consumer software stocks, AI infrastructure spending, and household retail consumption. The question is not whether one print is ‘good or bad’, but rather is the data reinforcing last week’s tightening stance or relieving it. 

• Keep your head on a swivel.

• Factually... Factually... (a) The S&Ps fell -1% in the month in February, but its equal-weighted version gained +3.4% in February and +6.8% YTD.  (b) Rotation remains a key theme, and Value vs Growth rotation has clear fundamental support. (c) However, there remain some compelling causes for optimism.  Overall, per Callum Thomas, the rally in cyclicals/value is helping offset tech-troubles.  There is clear and compelling macro-fundamental support for a rotation – along with a necessary cooling-off of the tech/AI hype.  It’s a classic case of overinvestment in capex on the AI front, but the news is not all bad.

• Trading TIPS:

  o  Tip #1: GLD ... Try buying the March 31, +$490 / $492 Call Spread for ... $0.60 OR just Buy more Physical Gold ‘n Silver.

  o Tip #2: Itron, Inc. (ITRI = $96 – makes the grid intelligent).  They produce smart meters, sensors, analytics platforms, and AI-driven energy management. Itron gives the grid a grid.

  o Tip #3: MasTec, Inc. (MTZ = $268 – is the grid builder).  They build the transmission lines, substations, generation facilities, and fiber networks. MasTec is who utilities call to get the real work done.

  o Tip #4: Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR = $525 – is the ‘King-of-the-Grid’)

  o Tip #5: Cemex (CX = $12.55) ... is the Mexican building materials company that is pressing against a 10-year breakout level @ $13.70.  A close above $13.70 targets a double @ $26.

• HODLs: (Hold-On for Dear Life):

  - Holding / Reducing:

  o (-) Ethereum (ETH = 1,924 / in at $310)

  o (-) Bitcoin (BTC = $65,755 / in at $4,310)

   

  - Increasing:

  o (+) Physical Commodities = Gold @ $5,295/oz. & Silver @ $94.3/oz.

  o (+) SLV (silver ETF) == ($84.9 / in at $27)

  o (+) GLD – Gold ETF ($483.7 / in at $212)

  o (+) GDX (gold miners ETF) == ($115.8 / in at $52)

  o (+) SIL (silver miners ETF) == ($118.3 / in at $86.05)

  o (+) COPX (copper mine ETF) == ($95.7 / in at $55.3)

  o (+) CCJ (uranium) == ($118.6 / in at $84)

  o (o) ATXRF (small copper & gold miner) == ($3.19 / in at $2.47)

  o (o) FMANF (small gold miner) == ($0.27 / in at $0.17)

  o (+NEW) ITRI (Itron, the grid’s intelligence layer) == ($94 / in at $96)

  o (+NEW) MTZ (MasTec, the grid’s builder) == ($298 / in at $268)

  o (+NEW) PWR (Quanta Services, king of the grid) == ($563 / in at $525)

  o (o) ILF (S. American ETF) == ($36.4 / in at $27.8)

  o (+) EWY (S. Korea ETF) == ($151.3 / in at $120.81)

  o (o) QQQI (13% covered-call, QQQ’s divi. producer == pay mo.)

  o (o) ICSH (short term bonds = 4.65% yield == pay mo.)

   

  Please be safe out there!

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