This Week in Barrons: 04.05.2026

In partnership with

• The War:  War strikes not only our visible targets, but also everything we neglected to protect.

• The Price of Gas:  Vehicle preferences lag gas price shifts by 4 – 6 months.  Gas prices spiked 30% last month alone.

• Gold’s Scarcity:  The world’s ~220,000 tonnes of above-ground gold would form a mere 22-meter cube – enough to fit inside just 4.5 Olympic swimming pools.

• Convenience = Consumption:  Per S. Godin, if you wish to drink more herbal tea, get a hot water dispenser that keeps it handy and on tap.  On the other hand, if you want to watch less television, disconnect the TV after each viewing session.

•  To be blunt: prices are rising as the economy cools.  Our FED is trapped, unable to raise rates against inflation without crushing a weak labor market, nor cut them without fueling the "inflation fire" in your bills, your gas tank and your rent.  Economist Kenneth Rogoff warns that the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, combined with tariff wars, will trigger the largest stagflationary shock in 50 years – emulating the 1973 oil embargo.  As Mohamed El-Erian notes, the magnitude of this shock is still widely misunderstood.

• In Q1 2026, the things you touch, mine, grow and burn ... outperformed the things that exist on a screen. Tip #1: Think about starting to rotate into assets that thrive in a stagflationary world:

  o Gold (GLD, GDX and AEM),

  o Silver (SLV and SIL),

  o Copper (COPX and ATXRF),

  o Critical Minerals (USAR),

  o Uranium (CCJ, and SRUUF),

  o Energy, and Agricultural commodities.

Become the go-to AI expert in 30 days

AI keeps coming up at work, but you still don't get it?

That's exactly why 1M+ professionals working at Google, Meta, and OpenAI read Superhuman AI daily.

Here's what you get:

• Daily AI news that matters for your career - Filtered from 1000s of sources so you know what affects your industry.

• Step-by-step tutorials you can use immediately - Real prompts and workflows that solve actual business problems.

• New AI tools tested and reviewed - We try everything to deliver tools that drive real results.

• All in just 3 minutes a day

Join 1M+ pros

• The GM Divide: GM added a sixth production day for trucks while simultaneously idling its EV plant and cutting 1,300 jobs – a tale of two very different bets.

• The SpaceX IPO: SpaceX’s confidential IPO filing targets a $2T valuation and $100B for Starship, Starlink, and xAI. Tip #2: Morgan Stanley appears set to give E*TRADE the exclusive retail allocation, shutting out Robinhood and SoFi.

• Waymo’s Surge: Waymo now clocks 500,000 weekly paid rides, a 10x jump in just 2 years.  By launching four markets in a single day, Waymo has signaled its own ‘mainstream’ graduation – leaving Tesla and AMZN’s Zoox in the rearview.

• The March Jobs Report: March added 178k jobs (crushed the 59k estimate) as unemployment dipped back down to 4.3%.  However, with soft wage growth and data collected just two weeks into the Iran War, this report describes a "pre-war" world that no longer exists.

•  Claude After-Dark: Using the Cowork and Dispatch apps, Claude can now operate your Mac via phone instructions while you’re away.  It uses your screen and keyboard to finish tasks during meetings or commutes; notably, any manual mouse movement interrupts the process.

•  Anthropic’s latest Acquisition: Anthropic acquired 8-month-old stealth startup Coefficient Bio for ~$400M in stock to bolster its biological research AI models.

• OpenAI expands into Media: OpenAI acquired TBPN, a tech interview platform with 70,000 viewers and $5m in annual ad revenue.

• Coinbase Trust Charter: Coinbase secured conditional approval for a national trust company charter, paving the way for expanded custody services, stablecoins, and tokenized securities.

• Jack Dorsey’s AI Bet: Following a 40% workforce cut, Jack Dorsey argues AI will replace most middle management at Block.  He contends that a remote work environment provides the perfect foundation for AI to eliminate human bias and introduce factual decision-making.

• Will gold go higher? History suggests the real question is whether you can stomach the initial drop. Major crises often trigger a ~25% drawdown before an explosive rally:

  o In 1973 (OPEC): Dropped 29%, then surged 117%.

  o In 1978 (Iran): Dropped 22%, then surged 300%.

  o In 2008 (GFC): Dropped 34%, then surged 180%.

  o In 2026: Gold has just hit that same 25% drawdown mark.

  Tip #3: If history rhymes, the next move could be one of its most explosive ever.

• What tech stock(s) should I buy? When market leadership shifts, the new leaders tend to dominate for months.  Past rotations show that when crowded mega-caps unwind, capital flows into smaller players:

  o In 2020: Small caps outperformed large caps by 30% in months.

  o In 2016 & 2018: Small-cap tech bottomed first and led the recovery rallies.

  o In 2026: Mega-cap trades are overcrowded. Tip #4: Current data points to small-cap technology as the next primary growth opportunity.

•  Hedging the Rally:  Smart investors are leveraging rallies to buy cheaper protection; on Tuesday, a massive 70,000 SPY Put contract order was placed at the $625 strike for April 17.

• M&A Divergence: Global M&A just saw its strongest quarter ever, driven by 22 megadeals. However, a sharp gap has emerged as small-scale deals plummeted 17%.

• Tip #5: Agri-Commodity Opportunity: Fertilizer shortages are forcing crop shifts and grain supply disruptions, making agricultural commodities the next major trade opportunity.

• The Week Ahead = Resilience or Rupture?  Next week’s data will reveal if the U.S. economy is absorbing current shocks or beginning to crack.

  o Monday = ISM Services PMI: Focus on Prices Paid. If prices rise while activity slows, the Fed faces a stagflationary dilemma.

  o Tuesday = Durable Goods & Crude Oil: Durable Goods track business investment. Crude inventories are critical given Russian cuts and the Strait of Hormuz closure.

  o Wednesday = FOMC Minutes: Insights into the Fed’s internal policy debate.

  o Thursday = The "Big" Day: A massive data dump including GDP and Core PCE (the Fed’s top inflation metric). A high PCE paired with weak GDP would signal the dreaded stagflation.

  o Friday = Inflation & Sentiment: A final look at inflation rates and consumer confidence via the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index.

• Factually... (a) Investor Sentiment is down, but Economic Sentiment is up.  (b) Markets appear to want to follow the Trump Weave.  (c) Blogs following the Oil Shock are highlighting the worst-case scenario. And  (d) Technology sentiment is deeply oversold.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: Global equities are up from oversold areas.  Add that to April’s positive seasonality, and there is a growing body of evidence supporting a rebound.

• HODLs: (Hold-On for Dear Life):

  - Reducing:

  o  (-) Ethereum (ETH = 2,061 / in at $310)

  o (-) Bitcoin (BTC = $67,165 / in at $4,310)

  o (-) QQQI (13% covered-call, QQQ’s divi. producer == pay mo.)

   

  - Holding & Increasing:

  o (o) Physical Commodities = Gold @ $4,702/oz. & Silver @ $73.17/oz.

  o (o) SLV (silver ETF) == ($65.7 / in at $27)

  o (o) GLD – Gold ETF ($429.4 / in at $212)

  o (o) COPX (copper mine ETF) == ($76.8 / in at $55.3)

  o (o) CCJ (uranium) == ($112.5 / in at $84)

  o (++) KMI (Kinder Morgan) ($33 / in at $33.10) ... in for +3% Divi + Sell $34 and $34.5 Cov. Call for +$1 / mo. 3% / mo.

  o (o) ATXRF (small copper & gold miner) == ($2.38 / in at $2.47)

  o (+) MTZ (MasTec, the grid’s builder) == ($336 / in at $268)

  o (+) PWR (Quanta Services, king of the grid) == ($560 / in at $525)

  o (o) HYPE (HyperLiquid, exchange) == ($35 / in at $32)

  o (o) ICSH (short term bonds = 4.65% yield == pay mo.)

   

  Please be safe out there!

• _{Expressed thoughts offered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can subscribe by visiting: https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com/subscribe.}

• _{Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <[email protected]> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> and/or https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com}

• If you'd like to see R.F. in action - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing.

• Creativity = https://youtu.be/n2QiPSe_dKk 

• Sales = https://youtu.be/blKw0zb6SZk

• Startup Incinerator = https://youtu.be/ieR6vzCFldI

• To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

• Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

• Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

• PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

• Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

• All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

To Subscribe: https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com/subscribe

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>  and/or
https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com.

Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:[email protected]>

http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com

https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com