This Week in Barrons: 04.26.2026

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• Apple’s Tim Cook gave us one of the best lessons: “Do not be so proud that you can’t change your mind when you’re presented with better information.”  Cook went on to say: “Steve Jobs had the emotional intelligence to pivot instantly, and very few people have that.”  That was echoed by Amazon’s Jeff Bezos when he said: “People who are right a lot – change their minds a lot.”

• The Return of Quantitative Easing ... Since resuming QE in December, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet by over $200B.  By purchasing Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities with newly created money, the Fed creates artificial demand that lowers interest rates, enabling cheaper government borrowing. However, this debt monetization is inherently inflationary, as it rapidly increases the money supply.

• Tim Cook’s Strategic Diplomacy ... Cook demonstrated exceptional pragmatism in August by presenting President Trump with a commemorative trophy. This diplomatic gesture secured tariff exemptions for Apple, effectively preventing base iPhone prices from skyrocketing to over $2,000.

•  Our Treasury: Hedge funds now hold a record 8% of the Treasury market.

• Retail Realities: While retail sales exceeded estimates, their growth was driven by rising fuel prices.  Because sales are measured in total dollars rather than units, "real" sales declined when adjusted for inflation.

• Per H. Thompson: Climate & Supply Shocks: A predicted "mega El Niño" – potentially the strongest since 1877 – is threatening global stability.  These climate risks are compounded by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, delaying critical energy and fertilizer shipments during the Northern Hemisphere’s spring planting season.

• Tech Layoffs: The labor market is tightening as Microsoft initiates a 7% voluntary buyout and Meta cuts 10% of its staff (8,000 roles) while freezing 6,000 open positions.

• Software Sector Stress: Software workers are currently in 1 of 3 buckets: fighting to retain their current job, actively resume shopping, or unemployed.

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• Silver Update:

  o Bullish: Bank of America projects silver will surge to between $135 and $309/oz by the EOY.

  o Structural: The Silver Institute reports a sixth consecutive year of supply shortages, driven by EV production, AI infrastructure, and green energy.

  o Investment: Physical demand for bars and coins is expected to rise 18–20% in 2026, with India’s retail market further tightening global supply.

• Corporate Transitions & Legal:

  o Apple Leadership: On September 1, Tim Cook will transition to Executive Chairman to focus on global policy, while hardware chief John Ternus takes over as CEO.

  o Uber Liability: A federal jury found Uber liable for a 2019 driver sexual assault, marking its second loss in a series of over 3,000 pending lawsuits.

• Tech, Trade & Data

  o China’s Investment Restrictions: Following Meta’s acquisition of Manus, China will now require government approval for domestic tech firms to accept U.S. investment.

  o Amazon’s Podcast Strategy: Amazon is transforming podcasts like "New Heights" into full commercial franchises, managing everything from merchandise and live events to dedicated storefronts.

  o Maine Data Centers: Maine’s Governor vetoed a landmark bill that would have established the nation’s first ban on new data center construction through 2027.

• Anthropic launched Claude Design .. a tool that converts prompts and code into prototypes and marketing collateral.  Alongside "Cowork" and browser agents, this moves the entire software development stack into a single ecosystem.

• National Security: Despite the Pentagon labeling Anthropic a "supply chain risk," the NSA has begun using Anthropic's Mythos model.

• Amazon’s investing an additional $25B ... in Anthropic.  In return, Anthropic committed over $100B to AWS and secured +5GW of computing power to address infrastructure strains caused by high enterprise demand.

• SpaceX secured a $10B option ... to acquire the AI coding platform Cursor at a $60B valuation. The deal pairs Cursor’s developer base with Elon Musk’s xAI "Colossus" supercomputer ahead of a potential SpaceX IPO.

• DeepSeek’s V4 Pro launched with the functionality of GPT-5.5 ... Claude Opus 4.7, and Gemini 3.1 Pro – only at a much lower price point.  Ignoring DeepSeek’s pricing power based on a potential "Chinese exclusion" - is self-absorbing a significant amount of geopolitical risk.

• What’s Tim Cook’s legacy at Apple?  While Steve Jobs provided the visionary "rocket," Tim Cook built the "system" that kept it in orbit.  Cook transformed Apple through 4 pillars:

  o An unrivaled supply chain delivering an inimitable global logistics network.

  o A Services powerhouse that’s a high-margin, cash-generating division.

  o A sticky Ecosystem that delivers a seamless user experience that ensures retention.

  o An Operational discipline that delivered unmatched consistency and scale.

  Cook succeeded by not trying to be Jobs; instead, he evolved Apple from a product innovator into an unstoppable global institution.

• Why does xAI want to purchase Cursor?  Per N. Sabharwal: The potential acquisition of Cursor by Elon Musk’s xAI is a strategic move to own the "primary work surface" of software engineering.

  o xAI gains (a) a direct channel to 1M+ paying users, 50,000 engineering teams, $2B+ in annual revenue, and 300+ Fortune 500 companies who already trust AI with their codebases.  And (b) a strategic moat that shifts xAI from a backend model provider to the integrated environment where developers spend their entire workday.

  o Cursor gains (a) infrastructure and margins that solve the ‘computing squeeze’ by moving away from expensive, competing suppliers (OpenAI/Anthropic) to xAI’s Colossus supercomputer.  And (b) scaling power that provides access to a backbone of 200,000+ GPUs, de-risking their technical roadmap and securing long-term economic sustainability. 

•  3 Weekly Takeaways:

  o A FED Nomination: The DOJ closed its criminal probe into Jerome Powell, removing the primary obstacle for Kevin Warsh’s nomination. With Senator Tillis no longer blocking the process, Warsh has a clear path to a committee "Yes" vote.

  o Geopolitical Tensions: Iran exploited a gap in the recent ceasefire (which only covered overt attacks) to board two ships and block the Strait of Hormuz under the guise of "sanctions enforcement."

  o Earnings Pressure: A downward cascade has begun as United, American, and P&G cut guidance due to rising fuel costs. Alaska Air withdrew guidance entirely, while ServiceNow implemented a price adjustment.

• Just the Facts:

  o Oil near $100/bbl. is the ‘tell’ nobody is discussing.  Historically, oil above $85/bbl. has NOT been a good backdrop for sustained equity rallies.  By the end of July, US commercial crude storage will fall below 400m bbls. – their operational minimum.  At that point, our govt. faces a binary choice: (a) Ban crude exports, or (b) Watch U.S. refineries shut down. Demand destruction on the scale of COVID is the only action that will balance this market. Not lower prices or diplomacy, but rather gov’t mandates that force people to use less fuel.

  o Volatility futures finished higher even as markets rallied. The S&P's expected move for next week jumped from $111 to $130.

  o Inflation is expected to soar, and product shortages will start to appear.  Farmers are getting wiped out.  Tomatoes have gone from $30/box to $80/box because ~90% of the crop is gone.  Sugar cane losses (per Florida Agr.) are over $1.1B and sweet Corn losses are over $300m.

   

• 3 Things to Watch-for Next Week (per PMD):

  o Core PCE ... is expected to print above 3% when Thursday's data lands.  That would be the sixth consecutive year above their 2% target.  New York Fed President Williams said last week that the stagflation pattern has already begun. If that is mentioned, then every model built on a 2026 rate-cut will need a new scenario.

  o Will Energy companies confirm their Middle East exit as permanent?  Exxon has recently outlined a $24B investment in Nigeria's deepwater fields, and Chevron has expanded in Venezuela. If no major supplier names a Gulf recovery timeline, then the shift away from the Middle East is more permanent. 

  o Will the Consumer continue to pull back? Thursday brings PCE (inflation) and GDP (productivity) data.  On Friday, April’s Consumer Sentiment survey drops. A consumer who is employed but spending more on gas and less on everything else - is a different credit risk than one who is just losing hours. If the Sentiment reading drops below March’s 74-year low, the consumer squeeze has moved from being a one-off to a more-permanent pattern. 

• Factually: (a) There is a slight bearish divergence in the S&Ps.  (b) Seasonality is moving into a weaker period, and yes – seasonality tends to be better when stocks are up YTD.  (c) The Semis are surging, making multiple records and hitting extremes.  And (d) Cyclicals vs Defensives are confirming the bullish macro picture.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: There’s a couple of short-term technical risk flags to note (especially with geopolitics simmering and central banks in the wings) and plenty of pockets of froth still bubbling away in markets. But there’s also some bright spots - e.g. emerging markets, cyclicals vs defensives, and a buoyant global economy.

• Tips:

  o #1 = Forget the FOMC meeting ... because Meta, Google, and Microsoft all report earnings the same night, and earnings are where next week's volatility is being priced.

  o #2: Home builders are a SHORT right now.  They got swept up in the broader squeeze with no bullish thesis behind them.

  o #3: Walmart is shooting for all-time highs ... BOT the May 15, +$131 / -$134 Call Spread as part of an inexpensive low probability / high pay-out strategy.

  o #4: Commodities ... Pick some that you like and buy ‘em.  I personally like food, fuel (uranium), and precious metals.  

• HODLs: (Hold-On for Dear Life):

   

  - Hold / Reduce:

  o (o) Ethereum (ETH = 2,341 / in at $310)

  o (o) Bitcoin (BTC = $78,110 / in at $4,310)

  o (o) COPX (copper mine ETF) == ($82.3 / in at $55.3)

  o (o) ATXRF (small copper & gold miner) == ($2.46 / in at $2.47)

  o (o) ICSH (short term bonds = 4.65% yield == pay mo.

   

  - Hold / Increase:

  o (+) Physical Commodities = Gold @ $4,725/oz. & Silver @ $75.6/oz.

  o (+) SLV (silver ETF) == ($68.7 / in at $27)

  o (+) GLD – Gold ETF ($433.2 / in at $212)

  o (+) CCJ (uranium) == ($122 / in at $84)

  o (o) KMI (Kinder Morgan) ($31.8 / in at $33.10) ... in for +3% Divi + Sold $31.5 thru $32 Cov. Call for +$1 / mo. 3% / mo.

  o (+) MTZ (MasTec, the grid’s builder) == ($376.1 / in at $268)

  o (+) PWR (Quanta Services, king of the grid) == ($624.8 / in at $525)

  o (+) HYPE (HyperLiquid, exchange) == ($41.3 / in at $32)

  o (+) WEAT (Agr. Commodity – Wheat) == ($23.2 / in at $20.89)

  o (+) CORN (Agr. Commodity – Corn) == ($18.3 / in at $17.19)

  o (+) CANE (Agr. Commodity – Sugarcane) == ($9.4 / in at $9.14)

  o (+) QQQI (1% covered-call, QQQ’s divi. producer == pay mo.)

   

  Please be safe out there!

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