This Week in Barrons: 05.03.2026

In partnership with

Real Numbers Don’t Lie... 

• Does Everybody Lie?

o The "3% Inflation" Myth: Official reports claim 3% inflation, but real-world costs tell a different story.  Gasoline is up $1.20, grocery receipts show a 45% surge since 2020, and consumer confidence is supposedly rising despite a lack of real jobs and soaring prices.

o The Insurance Trap: Even low-risk assets are being hit; a restored 1970 Chevelle saw a 22% premium hike despite barely leaving the garage.

o State Healthcare Spikes: Retired University Prof. coverage has ballooned from $368 to $765/month.

o Plain-old Price Gouging:

§ Gas: Prices hit their highest level since July 2022.

§ Home Security: Prices went from $10 to $50/month.

§ Dining-out: Local favorites have hiked prices by 25%.

§ Medicine: Long-standing prescriptions have spiked 1,000% (from $5 to $50).

• Have You NO Marketing Ethics?

o Are you selling disappointment?  When a product's packaging bears no resemblance to the contents, it’s a marketer’s choice to prioritize a quick sale over long-term trust.  Per S. Godin: Faking an image is no substitute for quality.  If you aren't proud of what's inside, don't sell it – unless your goal is to create disappointment for a living.

•  Macro & Markets

  o ‘Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes’ ... Like a David Bowie soundtrack, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is calling for change, although Wall Street fears his reform agenda may turn him into a Talking Head by "Burning Down the House".

• “Breaking Up is Hard to Do”... Musk vs. Altman

  o The Dispute: Elon Musk alleges Sam Altman "duped" him by illegally pivoting OpenAI from a mission-driven nonprofit to a $1T for-profitjuggernaut.  Altman believes this is an ego-driven "harassment campaign."

  o The Stakes: Musk is seeking Altman’s removal and $134B in damages.  A victory could derail OpenAI’s IPO and clear the path for Musk’s xAI.

• Defense: The "Golden Dome" Project

  o Space-Based Defense: SpaceX and Lockheed Martin are among 12 firms being awarded $3.2B to prototype orbital interceptors by 2028.

  o The Reality Check: While the goal is to destroy ballistic missiles seconds after launch, the tech is unproven and faces massive hurdles in physics, funding, and international treaty concerns.

Defense Spending Is Surging. Here's Where It's Going.

Global defense budgets are expanding, but the allocation has changed. A growing share of spending is going toward AI-enabled systems, satellite networks, and advanced aerospace, not the platforms that dominated the last generation of procurement. We identified five companies at the center of this reallocation in a single research brief. Inside, you'll find the investment case for each, the contracts driving revenue, and the risks worth understanding before you commit capital. If you want exposure to defense sector growth beyond the traditional mega-caps, this report is a practical starting point. Free, concise, and built for investors who want to move ahead of the crowd.

Read the report

• Markets & Macro

  o Fed Transition: Kevin Warsh inherits a divided committee, 3%+ PCE inflation, and weakening GDP growth.

  o Stagflation Alert: Ray Dalio declares the U.S. has entered an era of stagflation, marked by high inflation and rising unemployment.

  o Bond Warning: Jamie Dimon warns of an impending bond crisis as debt holders tighten terms while borrowers demand more flexibility.

  o OPEC Shakeup: The UAE will exit OPEC/OPEC+ on May 1st, a historic move rattling global energy markets.

• Corporate & Tech

  o GameStop’s Ambition: GME plans a bold bid for the much larger eBay as part of Ryan Cohen’s $100B valuation strategy.

  o Apple’s Cash Strategy: Apple authorized a $100B buyback and 4% dividend hike ($0.27/share), shifting from "cash-neutral" to balance sheet flexibility.

  o China & AI: Beijing vetoed Meta's $2B Manus acquisition, signaled that AI talent is now a protected national security asset under strict export controls.

  o End of an Era: The top 10 companies have pivoted from 1980s giants like IBM and Exxon to total tech dominance – marking the end of the legacy when many of us grew up.

• AI & Industry Shifts

  o DeepSeek's Price War: DeepSeek released two new models that top open-source benchmarks at roughly one-sixth the cost of competitors.

  o OpenAI's Growing Pains: After missing revenue and growth targets, OpenAI’s CFO is raising alarms over funding massive data-center commitments ahead of a planned IPO.

  o The Microsoft Decoupling: A new deal ends Microsoft’s model exclusivity and caps its revenue share, allowing OpenAI to sell to any cloud provider.

• Robotics & Geopolitics:

  o The China Robot Ban: The U.S. is moving to ban Chinese ground robots for national security, a move that risks stalling U.S. deployments due to deep supply chain dependencies.

  o The Battlefield Lab: Foundation is testing its Phantom humanoids in Ukraine, joining over 200 unmanned systems currently being tested under severe war-like conditions.

  o Drone Surgeons: Vimana unveiled the first drone-deployed surgical robot, enabling emergency procedures on the front lines before evacuation.

• Medicine: Mayo Clinic’s REDMOD AI

  o Early Detection: REDMOD identifies pancreatic cancer up to 3 years earlier than standard clinical methods by detecting invisible tissue patterns on routine CT scans.

  o Enhanced Accuracy: REDMOD nearly doubles the accuracy of human specialists.

  • Impact: By integrating REDMOD screening into routine care, it addresses the critical need for early diagnosis and potentially saving thousands of lives – vital for a disease with a 5-year survival rate below15%.

• Rumor: “This week Iran’s going to run out of oil storage space.”  Per LeShrub: Contrary to rumors of "exploding wells" due to storage capacity limits, historical data from 2019 proves that Iran can successfully cut and restart production without any long-term damage.

• Rumor: “You’re an amazing multi-tasker.”  Per S. Godin: Multitasking is an illusion that erodes productivity and peace of mind.  You’re simply "gear-shifting" between tasks.  It’s far more effective to embrace doing one thing at a time than to suffer the cost of constant jumping.

• Rumor: “Silver is dead money.”  The ‘paper’ silver market delivered 22.9m ounces of silver into ‘physical hands’ on the final of the April delivery window.  This registered drain is about to accelerate – as May, July, and December are the high delivery months.  Coverage ratios remain stressed, and the May delivery window is now open with even tighter supply dynamics.  These are the mechanics of a tightening physical market playing out in real time.  Silver holders when reviewing these ‘Real Numbers’ have every reason to feel confident in their investment story – which (in fact) just became a lot more compelling.

•  This Week’s Mag7 Numbers:

  o Apple: Revenue rose 17% to $111B (a March quarter record), driven by surging iPhone and Mac demand.

  o Alphabet: Reported $110B in revenue (up 22%), marking its fastest growth since 2022.

  o Amazon: Total revenue hit $181.5B (up 17%) led by AWS strength, although free cash flow plummeted 95%.

  o Microsoft: Revenue grew 18% to $82.9B; however, Azure’s 40% growth trailed cloud rivals Google and Amazon.

  o Meta: Despite beating Q1 estimates and hitting peak revenue growth, shares dropped due to their $145B AI spending forecast and a loss of 20m daily users.  Compounding the slump is a legal battle in New Mexico over child safety measures.  We continue to ask the question: How long can Meta keep feeding the AI machines before the machine feeds back?

•  Should I buy NVDA at current levels?

  o Trade it ... but understand that the $200 level is critical.  Nvidia is the market’s backbone, and if it cracks – it drags entire indexes down with it.

  o Bubble Mechanics: Recent surges in AMD, Micron, and the SMH were driven by gamma squeezes, not fundamentals.

  o Technicals: NVDA has missed its "expected move" for two weeks straight.  Markets don't stay ‘wrong forever’ so, watch for a pullback.

• Will our FED Lower Rates?

  o The Inflation Trap: Cutting rates while inflation is hot makes equities the only viable option.  Stocks will reprice higher simply because the dollar is losing value faster than wages are rising.

  o Our FED’s Playbook: Much like the 2020–2023 cycle, our FED is prepared to "reload" the rate-cut button.

  o Hyperinflation: If rates drop while inflation stays elevated, expect hyperinflation.  Equities will soar in nominal terms because their currency is being debased.

• 3 Things to Watch-for Next Week (per PMD):

  o Private Capital Contagion: Monitor Apollo or KKR for ‘cautionary capital deployment’.  If so, Moody’s warning of systemic private credit stress is serious & material.

  o Energy's Structural Shift: Watch for a lack of ‘Gulf recovery’ language in earnings calls.  Capital allocation to other regions without a return timeline confirms a permanent ‘Gulf exit’.

  o Consumer Recession Signals: If Disney and McDonald’s report traffic drops alongside a slide in Michigan Sentiment – the ‘R-word’ (Recession) is back on the table.

• Factually: (a) The S&Ps gained +10.4% in April (+5.3% YTD), and a good (>5%) April bodes well for the rest of the year.  (b) Microcap stocks are making a big move = a good sign for all stocks.  (c) There was a big pivot in preference from cash-flow back to capital expenditures (capex).  (d) And Value Investing may be dead (for the time being), but don’t ignore valuations altogether.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: This was a near textbook healthy correction, and unless some new bad news or shocks show up – the path of least resistance is onwards and upwards.

• Tips:

  o Tip #1: There is a long setup in MARA.  BUY at the current price, and set your stop for $10.72.  The target is $19 because of a clean head and shoulders pattern.

  o Tip #2: Buy NVDA as a trade.  Set your stop below $189.31 and use $250 as your target.

  o Tip #3: Buy Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT) ... with a stop at $65.27 and use $98 as an upside target.

  o Tip #4: Learn to like Power Infrastructure companies ... MTZ & PWR (see below).

  o Tip #5: Learn to like Commodities ... I personally like: food (WEAT, CORN, CANE), fuel (CCJ), and precious metals (SLV and GLD).

• HODLs: (Hold-On for Dear Life): 

  - Hold / Reduce:

  o (o) Ethereum (ETH = 2,295 / in at $310)

  o (o) Bitcoin (BTC = $78,220 / in at $4,310)

  o (o) COPX (copper mine ETF) == ($79 / in at $55.3)

  o (o) ATXRF (small copper & gold miner) == ($2.33 / in at $2.47)

  o (o) ICSH (short term bonds = 4.65% yield == pay mo.

   

  - Hold / Increase:

  o  (+) Physical Commodities = Gold @ $4,625/oz. & Silver @ $75.8/oz.

  o (+) SLV (silver ETF) == ($68.2 / in at $27)

  o (+) GLD – Gold ETF ($423 / in at $212)

  o (+) CCJ (uranium) == ($120 / in at $84)

  o (+) MTZ (MasTec, the grid’s builder) == ($417.4 / in at $268)

  o (+) PWR (Quanta Services, king of the grid) == ($742 / in at $525)

  o (+) HYPE (HyperLiquid, exchange) == ($41.7 / in at $32)

  o (+) WEAT (Agr. Commodity – Wheat) == ($24 / in at $20.89)

  o (+) CORN (Agr. Commodity – Corn) == ($18.8 / in at $17.19)

  o (+) CANE (Agr. Commodity – Sugarcane) == ($10 / in at $9.14)

  o (+) QQQI (Divi. producer via Cov. Calls == pay mo.)

   

  Please be safe out there!

• _{Expressed thoughts offered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can subscribe by visiting: https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com/subscribe.}

• _{Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <[email protected]> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> and/or https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com}

• If you'd like to see R.F. in action - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing.

• Creativity = https://youtu.be/n2QiPSe_dKk 

• Sales = https://youtu.be/blKw0zb6SZk

• Startup Incinerator = https://youtu.be/ieR6vzCFldI

• To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

• Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

• Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

• PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

• Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

• All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

To Subscribe: https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com/subscribe

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>  and/or
https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com.

Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:[email protected]>

http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com

https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com