This Week in Barrons: 1.11.2026

• New Year’s Resolution #2 = Gently Push Back … Left alone, everything drifts toward average – like coffee cooling to room temperature.  Culture applies the same pressure to people.  As Seth Godin puts it: The only thing that prevents you from becoming average is learning how to gently push back.

• The macro picture isn’t improving: (a) The job market is weaker than reported.  (b) Consumer confidence is near record lows.  (c) Credit-card delinquencies are at all-time highs.  And (d) Housing just had its worst year in over a decade

• A small but telling tech signal: Google announced a mobile feature that would call stores for you to check on inventory.  I spent the morning trying to use it and gave up. That suggests two things: (a) consumers don’t want it, and (b) no one’s using it – otherwise Google would have fixed it and shipped it properly.

• What will we do for a living?  In a world of automation, AI, and outsourcing – are you still the decision-maker?  And is your willingness to take responsibility your differentiator?  The good news is that there has never been more tools or leverage at your disposal.  However fair warning: it’s accountability that continues to be in short supply.

• At the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) …  Hyundai unveiled a production-ready Atlas humanoid and plans to build 30,000 robot workers annually by 2028, positioning them as the HQ for Human-Centered Labor.  Tesla and Figure still tout ambitions, but with no real timelines or scaled pilots.

• Markets: The iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) rose 45% in 2025.

• Energy: OPEC+ will not increase oil production in Q1 2026.

• AI predictions for 2026:

  o Google integrates AI … across Search, Gmail, YouTube, and Android.  It will start to overtake OpenAI in total AI users – while ChatGPT remains the top chatbot.

  o The First real AI-drug moment will be upon us when … an AI-first candidate enters major Phase 3 trials – triggering a wave of pharma AI adoption.

  o An “AGI” claim is coming … by a major Western lab.  A working AGI model is important technically, but anticlimactic culturally.

• Growth + Productivity Shock: Atlanta Fed pegs Q4 2025 real GDP at 5.4% vs the 3.2% long-term average.  Labor productivity just ran up 4.9% with hours worked up only 0.5%.  Corporate takeaway == More output with Fewer workers.

• Healthcare: Novo Nordisk launches their miracle weight-loss pill.

• AI capital war: xAI joins OpenAI and Anthropic in the $200B+ valuation tier. Musk’s control of both tech (xAI) and distribution (X), along with any Tesla/Optimus integration – uniquely positions Grok to move up the stack.

• Nvidia: New server line pulled forward … needing ~4X fewer chips to train frontier models, and ~10X cheaper inference models.

• CES 2026 theme: AI goes physical – as robots near deployment, deeper vehicle autonomy, and sensors and healthcare devices pushed toward real commercialization.

• Nvidia at CES launched Alpamayo … open-source model & toolkit for human-like autonomous driving reasoning.

• Housing liquidity: The FHFA authorizes $200B in near-term Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) purchases.  This is direct monetary QE for housing.

• Inflation: Truflation now shows 1.9% YoY inflation growth – and falling.

• Lego Smart Bricks: are sensor-equipped Lego blocks for: light, sound, motion, & wireless.  They turn normal builds into responsive environments.  Lego is betting on embedded intelligence + more physical play = causing a reduction in screen-time + an alternative innovation path.

• Razer Project AVA: is a 5.5" holographic desk companion powered by xAI’s Grok – part assistant and part gaming coach.

• Meta’s smart-glasses rollout is hit by supply-chain and expansion delays.

•  Amazon launched Alexa.com … bringing the new AI-powered Alexa+ to the web. It now competes directly with ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and Grok – with a distribution edge via existing Alexa hardware.

• OpenAI introduced ChatGPT Health … a private mode that connects medical records and fitness data for personalized health conversations – including insurance navigation.  This signals AI’s move toward a regulated healthcare utility.

• Google rolled out a major Gmail AI upgrade … incorporating an AI Inbox, Natural-Language email search, and made Help Me Write and Suggested Replies free for all personal users.

Gold Silver is NOT in a Bubble:

• Metals shock: Silver is near $80/oz and gold above $4,500. Green-energy targets require 400% to 1,600% production increases across 16 key metals.  Factually: Industrial mining has never achieved even a 100% increase in a decade.

• Structural shortages: We’ll shortly require: 5X the cobalt, 4X the lithium, 16X the graphene, and 9X the zinc.  Silver shortages began last year, and copper shortages about 18 months ago.  China just added stimulus via local-government debt relief and housing support – and this level of real Chinese stimulus requires massive industrial-metal demand.

• Speculation revolves around the: precious metals and “America First” trades.

• Gold is above $4,500/oz. and that puts $5,000 in view.

• Silver at $80/oz. is destabilizing the spot markets and puts $100/oz in play. 

• Copper just hit $6, and higher copper prices feed directly into power, manufacturing, AI, and real-economy costs – raising recession risks.  

• With a lack of resources, the ugly setup will be when the SPX tops $7,150 while the U.S. is experiencing negative growth.

• Geopolitics: China quietly imposed new export controls on resources that have a dual-use, and/or are used in semi-conductors, advanced manufacturing, and defense.  These controls will hit supply chains first and headlines later.

• Deployment: Money-market flows are rolling over as capital shifts back into equity funds.

• Crowding risk: Equity inflows over the past two months have been extreme.  The last comparable surge (Dec 2024) preceded a two-month stall, then a breakdown after the tariff shock.

• The Trend is your Friend until it Ends: We’re at the top of the channel. Outcomes: (1) We flatten and remain within the range-bound channel. (2) We continue to grind higher along the upper band (2014–15 analog). (3) We breakout and accelerate the trend – but a lot would need to go right for that pathway to happen.

• Energy/commodities Outlook: Energy is unloved and undervalued, but I believe we’re in the early innings of a more favorable macro/market backdrop for commodities and energy.  The outlook for commodities (see above graph) continues on an improving path.  We are rotating out of structural-growth tech into cyclicals, and global commodity equities are signaling a potentially strong runway for energy.

• How do I construct a Commodities Portfolio?  (see Graph below) … Compare (a) the GSCI Light Energy Spot, to (b) an equally-weighted group of commodity equity ETFs (DBC), and to (c) a 50/50 blend of commodity equities + commodity futures.  While good stock pickers will continue to outperform, (c) historically delivers a smoother, “higher-for-longer” return profile with lower risk.  [See graph below for comparison(s).]

   

• Factually: (a) The S&Ps are getting off to a good start in 2026.  Statistically, that bodes well for the rest of the year.  (b) The rotation out of cash and into stocks is ramping up, and we’re seeing a continued rotation into commodities and cyclicals.  And (c) energy stocks continue to be unloved, undervalued, and underestimated.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: There are several very interesting dynamics playing out in the macro arena and in specific markets as we gear-up into 2026.  Trend and momentum are positive overall, traditional cyclicals are picking up, commodities are stirring, and the winds of rotation are gathering.

   

  Trading TIPS:

  - Tip #1: VALE, AG, OPEN, COPX, GDX, GDXJ – miners are becoming more profitable and are seeing more consolidation.

  - Tip #2: CCJ … Uranium markets are finally expanding.

  - Tip #3: AIG … 20 Feb +$75 / -$82.50 Call Spread with a 10 to 15% stop … take advantage of the $200B QE into the housing sector.

  - Tip #4: AAPL is oversold – play the rebound … buy the 20 Feb +$257.50 / - $265 Call Spread.

   

  HODLs: (Hold-On for Dear Life) – Like Precious Metals …

  - Holding:

  o (o) Ethereum (ETH = 3,088 / in at $310)

  o (o) Bitcoin (BTC = $90,645 / in at $4,310)

  o (o) IBIT – Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF ($51.1 / in at $24)

  - Increasing:

  o (+) Physical Commodities = Gold @ $4,518/oz. & Silver @ $79.7/oz.

  o (+) SLV (silver ETF) == ($72.3 / in at $27)

  o (+) HYMC (gold & silver miner) == ($27.1 / in at $11.8)

  o (+) GLD – Gold ETF ($414 / in at $212)

  o (+) GDX (gold miners) == ($92.5 / in at $52)

  o (+) COPX (copper ETF) == ($77.7 / in at $55.3)

  o (+) CCJ (uranium) == ($107.5 / in at $84)

  o (+) QQQI (13% covered-call, dividend producer on the Q’s == paid monthly)

  o (+) ICSH (short term bonds = 4.65% yield == paid monthly)

  - Temp. Hedges:

  o (+) HTZ (Hertz) == BOT 20 Feb: $6 Call

  o (+) VIX (Volatility) == BOT 18 Feb: +$20 / -$25 Call Spread

   

  Please be safe out there!

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