This Week in Barrons: 10.5.2025

Last Week was FOMO on steroids...

Author

R.F. Culbertson
October 05, 2025

  •  AI talent studio Xicoia just revealed that its AI actress … Tilly Norwood, is in negotiations with multiple Hollywood talent firms, sparking backlash from actors who called for boycotts of any agencies that sign synthetic performers.  Between Norwood and AI musician Xania Monet, things are getting weird fast, and at least some parts of Hollywood appear to be moving past initial AI hesitations.  But given the reactions from actors and previous strikes from unions, ‘synthetic actors’ and public personas are going to be a VERY polarizing topic.

  • The ‘Old’ Entrepreneurship ways – are comin’ back … Walk through any crowded downtown area at 8am and you’ll see thousands of people looking purposeful.  Things look impressively important from sharp suits to coffee in hand and calls already starting.  But when Alex McCann and others talked to those same people individually – a different story emerged.  They’re in back-to-back meetings where nothing gets decided.  They’re managing projects that exist to justify the existence of a project manager.  They’re creating strategies just in case, optimizing things that don’t need to be optimized, and disrupting things that were working fine.  It’s the corporate version of the Emperor’s New Clothes: where everyone can see the emperor is naked, but we’ve all agreed to keep complimenting his outfit because our mortgages depend on it.  I’m seeing a resurgence of the old version (pre-Y2K) of entrepreneurship.  It’s not the ‘side-hustle-trend’ where people drive Uber after work or sell crafts on Etsy.  These stealth entrepreneurs are reclaiming some of their working hours to build their own real businesses – all the while maintaining the security of a corporate income.  They’re not going down the: Quit and Beg for Seed Capital route.  They are using the corporate infrastructure, the steady salary, the laptop, and the stability – as a platform for building something purposeful and more real to them.  [FYI: ‘Everything Old is New Again!’]

  • Piecing together the missing Jobs Report:

    o The ADP Report told us … that the U.S. lost -32,000 jobs in September, and REVISED August’s +54,000 job gain into -3,000 more jobs lost.

    o Payrolls fell in September … across services like hospitality, business, and finance, and in goods sectors like construction and manufacturing.

    o Job Losses were concentrated in the Midwest … and mostly at firms with under 500 employees.

The Market:

  • This is NOT 1999 all over again …  Back then, the largest tech names traded at a 41× forward multiple with thin or even negative cash flow.  Today, the median is closer to 31×, and this time the earnings are real.  Yes, concentration is elevated, as NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Apple alone make up over 20% of the S&P 500.  That means if/when the leaders wobble – the entire tape goes with them.  But unlike the dot-com era, these companies aren’t priced on eyeballs or addressable market-size.  They’re monetizing AI, cloud, semis, and consumer ecosystems with visible margins and entrenched moats.  I like Meta, Nvidia, and Google – because of their earnings’ quality and moat durability.

  • Overall, Per Callum Thomas:

    o Global monetary policy settings have moved from being headwinds to tailwinds as QE was started – directly in the face of inflation.

    o The macro risks are recession (+deflation) on one end vs re-acceleration (+inflation resurgence) on the other end.  The US faces a heightened risk of recession, while the rest of the world is looking better (Japan = strong, Europe & China = turning up out of a slowdown).

    o The US asset classes at risk are US tech stocks, US housing, the US dollar, and US credit spreads.

    o ​​Superior US upside risk/reward remains with commodities, government bonds, and emerging markets.

  • The Stablecoin Supercycle is upon us …

    o The GENIUS act (passed over the summer) has U.S. Tres. Sec. Bessent aiming for a $3T total stablecoin supply by 2028.  The demand for stablecoin exposure is practically infinite.

    o Circle IPO did a 5x on launch.

    o Zerohash raised $104m to build a stablecoin.

    o Teather announced USAT this month and is raising funds at a $500B valuation.

    o USDH went live last week.

    o ETH’s USDe crossed $14B in outstanding supply.

    o Cloudflare, Stripe, MegaETH, and Korea all announced separate, upcoming stablecoin releases.

Info-Bits…  

  • Corporate America is losing profitability ... as companies are swallowing higher input costs (+ tariffs) rather than passing them on to consumers.

  • OpenAI just rolled out: In-Chat / Instant Checkout …  for Etsy and soon Shopify – letting users buy without leaving a conversation and signaling a bigger fight with Google and Amazon over who controls online shopping and payments.

  • OpenAI announced 2 major products … the Sora 2 video model, and the Sora app. The AI model generates hyper-realistic video clips, while the Sora app presents them in a TikTok-style feed.  Sora 2’s incredible physics and realism and a new Cameo feature – deliver the next step up in video generation.

  • Microsoft brings ‘Agent Mode’ to MSFT Office … Excel in ‘Agent Mode’, can now run multi-step data analysis, build models, and validate results.  In MSFT Word, ‘Agent Mode’ helps draft, summarize, and refine documents in an interactive workflow.  Another ‘Office Agent’ can create a polished PowerPoint deck and Word report directly from a chat.

  • Google makes search visual with AI mode …  Users can now search using reference images or natural-language prompts, receiving visually rich, shoppable results instantly. 

  • US consumer confidence fell sharply in September … sinking to its lowest level in five months.

  • OpenAI completed a secondary share sale … allowing employees to liquidate $6.6B in stock at a $500B valuation.  That makes it the world's most valuable private company and surpasses SpaceX's $456B mark.

  • Since 1929 … the DOW is down 36% when measured relative to Gold.

  • Tesla reported a 29% jump in Q3 car deliveries … in part due to the expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit.

  • Wealthfront, one of the world’s largest robo-advisors … filed for an IPO.  They have ~$90B in assets, and plan to list under the ticker ‘WLTH’.

Crypto-Bytes:

  •  Perp DEX Volume Breaks $1T … HyperLiquid (HYPE), Aster (ASTER), and ETH’s Lighter fight for market share.

    o Aster (ASTER) … came from nowhere and pulled in $420B on the Binance (BNB) blockchain.  Aster is planning its own ZK Layer 1.  Their token is $1.75 after doing running up 10x in four days.

    o HyperLiquid (HYPE) … slipped into second place in September, down 29% from August.  Its token remains ~$49, but Aster is eating its lunch.

    o Lighter … is Ethereum’s L2 Beta contender.  Its public main net is live with 188,000 accounts, 50,000 DAUs, and it has yet to roll out a token.

    o This space is about to get bloody … Aster’s rise shows how fast a narrative + token + feature edge can bulldoze incumbents.  HyperLiquid will defend their ground because nothing burns faster than market share in DeFi.

  • Tip #1: The common sentiment is that BTC will go ‘balls-to-the-wall’ … if its weekly close remains above $118,500,

  • Where is Bitcoin going? – per Cryptotwits:

    o Currently the profitability of holding bitcoin is rising and outflows (away from the exchanges) are increasing == Healthy grind Higher.

    o Risk increases if profitability jumps above 10% and exchange flows flip to +10,000 BTC.  That’s when sellers and late FOMO buyers will arrive.

    o Outlook == Bullish but not bulletproof.  BTC has room to run if exchange balances keep bleeding and profitability remains under 10%.

  • Where is Ethereum headed? – per Cryptotwits:

    o Currently it has low to mid-single digit profitability and consistent outflows = Stealth Accumulation.

    o Until profitability moves over 12% and exchange flows swing back to +500,000 ETH = ETH will remain boringly bullish.

    o Outlook == Bullish  ETH has the cleanest setup of the two.  Supply keeps declining and profitability is not overheating.

Morgan Moment(s):

  • Gold is a non-productive asset … and is supposed to be a stable store of value with very little volatility on a day-to-day basis.  This is why a 15% move in about a month has put all eyes on the precious metal.  One of the main reasons for this move is increasing investor demand.  Adam Kobeissi explained: “Investors are piling into gold funds like never before. The largest gold ETF (GLD) attracted +$2.3B in net inflows in September.  GLD has pulled in the most capital YTD since the 2020 pandemic.  And GLD hit its seventh quarterly gain over the last 8 quarters – its best streak since 2020.”

  • The broad debasement of fiat currencies should not be a surprise.  The Global Markets Investor points out:“Currency debasement is not a bug, but rather a feature of the fiat system. Since 1971, none of the 152 global countries has kept their average inflation below 2%. Fiat money is in an eternal bear market.” Fiat debasement and central bank buying helped with gold’s recent rise. We also know inflation fears, increasing geopolitical tensions, and higher FED rate cut expectations are contributing factors. Add to that the recent media coverage of the gold rally, and you have the perfect storm for gold to continue moving higher.

Next Week...  Last Week == FOMO on steroids…

  • The AI trade doesn’t care …  Nvidia is spending money on Core Weave, and Core Weave is spending money on Nvidia.  The circle of life continues while traditional market indicators flash red.  JPMorgan explains: “AI related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022.”

  • Liquidity conquers all … while everyone's talking Fed cuts and shutdown fears, ~$64B in new money came into equity funds in September.  That’s the largest inflow since the election.  That's not fear, that’s FOMO on steroids.

  •  WARNING SIGNS:

    o  Tip #2: Data Trek is showing excessive market confidence. Every time this model has flashed its signal since 2023, the S&P has declined by a minimum of 5% in the following weeks.

    o Tip #3: Applied Materials' warning is worrisome.  The largest semiconductor equipment maker in the world just announced a $500m revenue shortfall due to export restrictions halting production.  This AI infrastructure boom could be nearing a plateau.

    o Tip #4: Private Equity (PE) is exiting many AI deals ... When the smart money that funded these companies is cashing out early, “Here’s your sign.”  This Private Equity indicator is reliable at marking market tops, because PEs don’t wait for bottoms – they get out near the top.

    o Tip #5: Hiring Plans hit a 16-year low … as our economy overheats and AI replaces workers.  On the way up, nobody cared about bad news, but on the way down – that’s ALL they care about.

    o  Tip #6: Stocks get Downgraded and Rally … When downgrades at all-time highs become buying opportunities, you're watching pure algo momentum with zero human judgment = FOMO.

  • 3 Psychological Traps that will destroy your trading account …

    o Herd Mentality … avoid it because it makes traders follow the crowd – often over the cliff.

    o Availability Bias … avoid it because it forces 24-hour decision-making instead of doing actual problem-solving.

    o Endowment Bias … avoid it because it convinces you that what you own is worth more than the market will pay for it.

TIPS...

  • Factually: (a) The S&P500 made its 5th monthly gain in a row in September. (b) The 1990’s tell us that there is room to run for this bull market.  (c) Lofty valuations suggest tempering your enthusiasm. In fact, the “S&P493” is overvalued vs its global peers (which are breaking out).  And (d) there is a growing list of major, global, bullish breakouts.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: The bull market moves higher.  While there are various warning signs starting to light up, there’s also numerous global, bullish developments.  These developments signal a bullish broadening of the rally and highlight the merits of looking beyond the Mag-7 for investment ideas.

  • HODLs: (Hold-On for Dear Life)

    -  (+) IBIT – Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF ($69.7 / in at $24)

    - (+) ETHA – Ethereum ETF ($34.2 / in at $13)

    - (+) Physical Commodities = Gold @ $3,912/oz. & Silver @ $48/oz.

    - Bitcoin (BTC = $124,800 / in at $4,310)

    - Ethereum (ETH = 4,590 / in at $310)

    - (+) GLD – Gold ETF ($357.6 / in at $212)

     

  • Options for Income:  De-Risking a Portfolio… (using IBIT for example)

    - BUY-n-HOLD the IBIT ETF

    - BUY PUTs: 1 Std. Dev. Lower, Expiring = 3-weeks away, OTM (out-of-the-money) for protection.

    - SELL Covered CALLs: 0.75 to 1 Std. Dev. Higher, Expiring = 2-weeks away, OTM for income and to finance the PUTs.

     

  • More ‘De-Gen’ Economy holdings:

    - ChainLink (crypto) == LINK: ($22.6 / in at $19)

    - Aave (crypto) == AAVE: ($292 / in at $254)

    - GDX (gold miners) == ($77 / in at $52)

    - SLV (silver ETF) == ($43.6 / in at $27)

     

  • AI / Data-Center market basket:

    - NVDA ($187 / in at $168)

    - RXRX ($5.49 / in at $4) == moves like NVDA, but it only costs $5.

    - IREN ($30.62 / in at $25)

    - NBIS ($129.65 / in at $114)

    - HUT ($39.93 / in at $30)

    - APLD ($25.91 / in at $20)

     

    Please be safe out there!

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