This Week in Barrons: 11.16.2025

•   Per S. Forbes: Have you walked into a Start-Up lately?

  o You’ll hear people having conversations about sports, why the new highway is ruining downtown, and often whispering about what they saw on the news.

  o You’ll see a "MAGA" hat and a "Pride" tote bag working side-by-side.

  o Employees will tell you: “I don’t just work at a startup.  I come alive in one.  I once grabbed a battered 1950s copy of The Grapes of Wrath and said: ‘You see this book?  People think it's a sad book.  It's not.  It's an angry book.  It's about people who had everything taken from them, but they refused to stop being people.  They refused to be disposable – at least not until they made-a-difference.’”

  o Silence at Home is often the end to a day.  Silence in a Startup is full of stories waiting to be told. 

  o In a world so quick to replace humans with robots, it’s our startups that continue to turn wrinkles into memories and engagements into stories.

  o Startups have no age limits, just as Purpose carries no expiration date. 

  o Startups don't stop growing, just because you’re growing older.

  o Startups never ask you to stop before you’re finished.

  o A Startup is often where you go – to Start your next chapter.

   

  - In 2025, 40% of the freshmen at the Univ. of California San Diego … could not do Middle-School Math.  That number has grown 30 TIMES since 2020.  And, in just 5 years, 10% of our college students now need to be retaught First Grade Math.

•  I could NOT have said this better myself … Per H. Lindzon: “I despise both sides of the political aisles right now because they are wrecking civility, integrity, and the rule of law.  With American airports shut down due to the moronic government shutdown, Fat Nixon is lobbying to name the Washington Football stadium after himself.  The lack of shame coupled with the negligence of our leadership (both sides) is being expressed in the form of inflation.  I understand our youth paying $50 for a 'DoorDashed’ burrito or Uber Eats pizza because they know they will never be able to afford a home.  I worry about the unintended consequences surrounding this under-discussed topic.”  I am starting to assume that inflation will continue to accelerate, and I constantly remind myself that: “High prices are the cure to High Prices. 

   

  - Isn’t ‘Round-Tripping’ illegal? Round-Tripping is a type of fraud where companies pass each other the same money to mutually inflate their valuations – pretending to do more business than they are.  With all the billion / trillion-dollar money swaps going on within AI, it certainly appears that a lot of this AI hype resides exactly in: robbing Peter to pay Paul – who then pays Peter – so he can be robbed again.  For example: this week, OpenAI announced that they will pay AMD $100B for 5m graphics cards.  Simultaneously, AMD announced that they are giving $100B back to Open AI in the form of stock.  Prior to that, OpenAI announced that they will be buying $200B worth of graphics cards from Nvidia.  And simultaneously, Nvidia will invest $100B back into OpenAI.  One problem is that Nvidia does not have $100B to give to OpenAI.  But then OpenAI reported that they will spend $300B with Oracle to use their data centers.  Oracle immediately took the $300B receivable, walked it over to Nvidia, and bought ~3 tons of graphics cards to shove into their data centers to make them operational for OpenAI.  [FYI: I really hope that this all made legal sense to somebody – because it sounds like Round-Tripping to me.]

   

• Referring to the Gold vs Stocks graph above … it seems like the gold/stock ratio is in the process of breaking out of its multi-decade triangle pattern.  If it does breakout, then that’s going to be a major development for both stocks and gold (and probably more of an issue for stocks because this is exactly what happened during the up-waves of the early-2000’s and 2008/09).

• Sydney Sweeney’s American Eagle jeans / genes ad … caused the stock to jump 38% on September 4 – after the CEO attributed their increased sales to “the success of the Sydney Sweeney marketing campaign.”

• Instead of holding more U.S. Treasury bills … India's central bank is increasing its gold reserves, and it wants the gold inside its own borders.

• Apple’s next big play might walk, talk, and do the dishes.  Apple could own 9% of the global robotics market in 15 years.  Apple is already exploring personal home robots, including a mobile home robot and a motorized tabletop device.  With a projected $133B in annual robot revenue, that would dwarf the Mac’s ~$30B a year and surpass 2024 Services’ $96B by about 38%.

• Softbank sold all its $5.3B of NVDA stock … citing valuations and competition. 

• OpenAI eyes Healthcare … as it considers developing an AI-powered personal health assistant.  OpenAI launched HealthBench in May, made strategic hires, and noted "more useful health answers" as a key feature in GPT-5.

• U.S. Geological Society added Silver to its list of ‘critical minerals’.  This will put further demand pressure on a metal that’s already in short supply.

• Our FED may not cut rates in Dec. ... as the odds for a Dec. cut are 50 - 50.

• Verizon plans to cut 15,000 jobs … making that their largest layoff ever. 

• Waymo is expanding its robotaxi service … to include freeway routes across Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Phoenix.  That’s a key step toward scaling autonomous rides.  [FYI: While Musk makes extravagant promises about the potential of Tesla’s robotaxi service, Waymo is actually ‘living the dream’.]

• Freight loadings are down -8.7% YoY … a lousy sign for Q4 industrial activity.

•  Per Dr. Stoxx: “Bitcoin will continue being Bearish for the near future: I don't see a bottom for $IBIT, $BTC, $ARKB, and $MBT_F until maybe early next year.  It’s in a well-established trend channel now.  It’s better to short the pops than try to swing long.  Maybe $IBIT in the upper $30's is a resting place?  I’m not sure, but BTC and ETH are firmly in no-go zones for me until further notice.”

• Last week, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) dumped … billions in bitcoin holdings as Bitcoin crashed through $100,000.  Currently, the value of MSTR's bitcoin stash now sits below what they borrowed to buy it. 

• The US government gave crypto another stamp of approval … as Treas. Sec. Scott Bessent announced new crypto guidance for exchange-traded products.  [FYI: It defines a clear path to stake digital assets, and to share staking those rewards with retail investors.]

• Coinbase is launching a new token-sales platform … that lets individual investors buy digital coins before they’re listed.  This is the first regulated return of ICO-style offerings in the U.S. since 2018.

• After Trump pardoned CZ, and in the span of 10 months … crypto deals have increased the President’s net worth by $3B.

• Chinese state-backed hackers are using Anthropic’s AI model … to automate ~90% of cyberattacks against corporations and governments.  This marks the highest level of AI-powered hacking on record.  The attacks require minimal human oversight, with hackers primarily clicking ‘continue’ while the AI engine executes complex multi-stage operations. The attacks demonstrate that AI models can orchestrate sophisticated, multi-step cyberattacks – with unprecedented automation.  This means traditional defense strategies built around fast-typing, uber-smart humans – are inadequate against AI-engines that can execute dozens of attack vectors simultaneously.

• Morgan’s Crypto Trade of the Week:  On Friday, with bearish Bitcoin headlines and broken support lines, one institution quietly deployed $2.3m on a single options trade.  They bought 19,300 January 16, $17 Call options on RIOT.  Riot Platforms (RIOT = $13.95) is a bitcoin mining stock that tracks crypto prices tick for tick.  This was calculated positioning on a stock with elevated short interest, declining volatility, and a technical setup primed for a squeeze.  This is NOT a moonshot bet on new Bitcoin highs, but rather a calculated trade that RIOT can push above $17 over the next 60-days. 

  Tip #1: The Trade is:  Trade Type: Long Call Vertical Option Spread // Expiration: January 16th, 2026 // Buy: RIOT $17 Call // Sell: RIOT $19 Call for a Net Debit: $0.40.  

  This creates a $2-wide spread with defined risk and clear profit potential: Max Risk: $0.40/contract // Max Profit: $1.60/contract // Breakeven: $17.40 // with a Target Exit: 50 to 70% return.  Selling the $19 RIOT Call reduces your premium cost and caps your upside, but it also defines your maximum loss.  It’s just a clean risk-reward setup that profits when RIOT rallies toward $19.

• “This week felt like a tooth extraction without anesthesia.”

• Technically speaking … The market closed the week exactly where it started, BUT the volatility futures are warning us that real chaos still lies ahead.  The VIX sits at 20, but we’ve seen that movie before.  This time (however) back-month volatility is trading at 22 for February.  That means the market is pricing in significantly more risk in January and February than it is right now.  After a week like we just had – that rarely ever happens.

• Last week we witnessed wild sector rotations without a clear pattern. 

  o Healthcare ripped to the upper edge of its expected move while financials tested critical, lower support. 

  o Energy and Utilities were sold. 

  o The market moved +100 points higher on Monday and Tuesday with no options volume, then collapsed on Thursday and Friday with 80m options contracts traded.

  o The VVIX touched 116 and remains at levels where professionals are both hedged and cautious.

• Correlation concerns me the most … because Friday morning we caught a brief glimpse of real correlation = when 90 stocks in the S&P 100 were declining simultaneously.  Mega cap tech then rallied and pulled everything back from the brink.  Capitulation require correlation.  Everyone needs to be selling all-at-once for market pressure to release.  When real volatility hits, there is nowhere to rotate and nowhere to hide. 

• Last week Portfolio Managers were … shoving capital into healthcare and consumer staples – because there were no other options.  The players continue to narrow.  Google and Broadcom are up ~47% YTD; however, Meta is unchanged, AMZN is +6%, and Tesla is +7%.  When you strip out two or three names, you can see that the market has been bleeding for months.

• Correlations were bleeding across asset classes … as Crypto dropped 25% from its recent high and Metals sold off hard.  When Bitcoin breaks $90,000, companies like MicroStrategy will be forced to exit positions.  And that forced liquidation will reverberate back into high beta stocks and the broader market.  Therefore, tech stocks are going to want to see Bitcoin stabilize and recover, and soon, or else the tech valuation/confidence structure will start to follow and unravel quickly.

• Last Thursday and Friday’s market action was a full reset.  We had sloppy opens, followed by sharp reversals, followed by the strongest stocks refusing to break.  That’s always the tell.  When the indices wobble but leadership names base or strengthen – that’s when the next returns are usually born.  But not before capitulation.  Friday moved (XBI) higher while Big Tech continued to flush out its weak hands.  That behavior is exactly what we need before the next major move higher.  When asset prices fail to rise despite strengthening fundamentals, it suggests markets are still climbing their wall-of-worry about: (a) the lack of economic data during the 45-day gov’t shutdown, (b) hawkish Fed rhetoric, (c) increased corporate layoffs, and (d) worrisome inflation numbers.

• Next week’s SPX Expected Move = $150.  This is after we closed this week unchanged – despite touching the higher and lower edges of a $123 range.  Therefore, this market is pricing for even bigger swings ahead. 

  Watch for the following hedges to move higher:

  o Tip #2: SQQQ … the UltraPro Short QQQ – 3x leverage,

  o Tip #3: UVXY … the Ultra VIX Short – being held up by its 50-dma,

  o Tip #4: TZA … the Small Cap Short – 3x leverage,

  o Tip #5: FNGD … the FANG+ Inverse ETF,

  o https://www.secform4.com/insider-buy-sell-ratios == tracker Insider Net Buy / Sell Ratio.  When insiders are buying … you should be as well.

• Factually: (a) Bitcoin is off -25% (high to low) = a bearish omen for tech stocks. (b) Private equity is down -13% = another bearish omen.  (c) Valuations and positioning are at historic extremes, but there is good relative value in foreign & value stocks.  And (d) healthcare’s relative performance is turning up with biotech (XBI) breaking out.  Overall, per Callum Thomas, there are too many sick-canaries in the coalmine – considering the valuation backdrop.  Here’s a 3-step process that will allow you to: ‘exit’ market tops / ‘enter’ market bottoms: (Step 1) sell/buy a little when it’s starting to look cheap, (Step 2) sell/buy a little more if it gets even more extreme, and (Step 3) sell/buy a lot more once you get confirmation that it’s turned the corner.  I’m well into Step 1 of that ‘selling’ process as U.S. markets are on the topping / expensive side.

   

  HODLs: (Hold-On for Dear Life)

  - Reduce:

  o  (-) IBIT – Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF ($53.47 / in at $24)

  o (-) Bitcoin (BTC = $95,000 / in at $4,310)

  o (-) Ethereum (ETH = 3,160 / in at $310)

  - Increase:

  o (+) Physical Commodities = Gold @ $4,084/oz. & Silver @ $50.4/oz.

  o (+) ICSH (short term bonds = 4.65% yield == paid monthly) =  https://stockanalysis.com/etf/icsh/dividend/ 

  o (+) GLD – Gold ETF ($375.6 / in at $212)

  o (+) SLV (silver ETF) == ($45.9 / in at $27)

  o (+) GDX (gold miners) == ($76.1 / in at $52)

   

  AI / Agent / Data-Center basket:

  - NVDA ($190.1 / in at $168)

   

  Please be safe out there!

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