This Week in Barrons: 11.23.2025

•  Per J. Gundlach … “The next big crisis in financial markets is going to be private credit.  It has the same trappings as the subprime mortgage repackaging had back in 2006.  Therefore, load up on cash and stay away from credit.” 

• Credit Defaults are coming for you … The subprime auto delinquency rate (60+ days) is now at 6.43% = a record high, above the 2008 peak, and up 52% YTD.  Auto repossessions are at a 15-year high, and on the way toward an all-time high.  The culprits this time are the institutional loan modifications.  That’s what lenders do to avoid putting a loan into non-performing / technical default status – and subsequently having to take a loss on the loan.  The credit card delinquency rate (90+ days) is 12.27% = a record high, and up 22% YTD.  To the institutional investor, consumer credit rolling-over before any meaningful rise in unemployment is a serious red-flag.  Historically, labor-market weakness comes before credit deterioration, not the other way around.  Today’s problem signals an issue with the underlying economy – one that causes severe recessions.

• Per C. Bilello … “What stocks are near their 52-week highs?” 

  o Google, Apple, S&P 500 are down -4% from their 52-week high.

  o Gold is down -7%,

  o Amazon is down -9%, Microsoft -14%, Nvidia -15%, Tesla -18%, Palantir -19%, Meta -25%, and Bitcoin is down -27%.

  o Ethereum is down -38%, Coinbase -42%, MicroStrategy -62%, Dogecoin -67%, Fartcoin -90%, Trump Coin down -91%, and the Melania Coin is down -99%.

• Per H. Lindzon … “David Sacks (DJT’s crypto czar) looked the other way as DJT, Melania, and friends took-a-dump on the markets and floated their shitcoins – now both down over 90%.  They ran a no-cost ‘n no-accountability grift on J.Q. Public – making bag holders out of millions of unsuspecting buyers.  In fact, our current bear market is a result of their negligence, grift, and endless supply.  Finally, fundamentals and valuations matter again.”

• China's UBTech is touting their humanoid commercialization ... They have $113m in orders and 500 industrial humanoids slated for delivery in 2025, with production capacity ramping in 2026.

• Per H. Thompson: “10 months into 2025, and there are virtually no IPOs.  What happened to all the new business our leadership promised?  Andreessen Horowitz is reporting that +80% of all AI pitches are using Chinese open-source software – because it’s Cheaper, Better ‘n Faster than our own. 

• Anthropic’s CEO said: “AI will find cures for diseases and double the human lifespan, but it will also cause massive job losses, technology misuse, and poor decision-making.

• Google CEO Sundar Pichai said: “There is some irrationality in the AI boom.  If the bubble bursts, no company will be immune – including us.”

• There are a million reasons why this market should be 40% lower … and one day it will be.  For example: (a) the country is broke, (b) subprime auto loans and lenders are blowing up, (c) credit card defaults are soaring, and (d) Japan’s interest rates just hit 2.75% which is crushing the 30-year-old carry trade. 

• Nano Banana Pro takes image generation to a new level … Google upgraded its image-generation platform with enhanced world knowledge, text rendering, translation capabilities, and studio-level precision.  Nano Banana Pro excels at generating clear text, complex infographics, and detailed product mockups.  See how it works here.

• More than half of US homes lost value in the past year

• Harvard reported a $443m investment in the bitcoin ETF - IBIT.

• OpenAI is moving into social media - testing group chats … that allow you to chat with both friends and ChatGPT in the same conversation.

• Peter Thiel (like SoftBank) … has sold his entire $100m Nvidia stake as worries mount over an AI bubble inflated by circular deals and unsustainable valuations.

• The recent silver squeeze in London … underscored a fundamental problem – there is NOT enough silver being produced to meet demand.

• Google has released Gemini 3 … and it’s available through the Gemini app and AI search.  With Gemini 3, Google has unseated OpenAI for the first time in a while.  With endless integrations across its sprawling product ecosystem, the tech giant is flexing some serious muscle.

• The U.S. added 119,000 new jobs in September … double the 50,000 estimate and putting a Dec. rate cut in jeopardy.  Also, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% for the first time since 2021. 

•  Bitcoin has corrected 30% in the last month and a half.  Per A. Pompliano: “This is the third 30% correction for Bitcoin this cycle.  Each correction has compressed and accelerated the max fear sentiment: (a) August 2024 (Yen Carry): 147 days, (b) April 2025: (Tariffs) 77 days, and (c) November 2025: 42 days”

• Bitcoin is now deeply oversold … which is causing the bitcoin whales to start buying again.  The volatility, chaos, and uncertainty have accompanied Bitcoin HODLers over the years.  If you can keep your head on straight when everyone else is losing their mind – you have traditionally done well.

• “Morgan, is there a FED rate cut coming?” … On Friday, NY FED-Head Williams said that he feels rates are already restrictive and should move toward a more neutral rate.  Basically, he said they're still on track for a cut.  Then JP Morgan changed their FED call from a cut in Dec. to one in Jan., but said that the ADP and JOLTS reports could still move our FED’s needle.  So, will JPM change back to expecting a cut in Dec?  Probably yes.

• “Morgan, why are digital assets collapsing?” … On January 15, 2026, a vote will take place that will include or exclude digital asset treasury companies like MSTR from passive index funds.  If it passes, companies like MSTR will be automatically removed from all index products.  Which means that all the pension funds, normal funds, and other passive index holders would dump their MSTR automatically.  It would also eliminate one of the major reasons that they exist. 

• Morgan’s Healthcare Trade of the Week:  While the Mag-7 unwind and traders scramble to figure out what's next, there’s a sector that's gone parabolic right under everyone's nose.  Healthcare isn't some speculative moonshot, but rather a sector that hasn't made new highs in 14 months and is finally waking up.

• Tip #1: Look at Healthcare (XLV) because they have moved 60% off their April lows.  IBB sits $10 away from all-time highs, and XBI could surge another 40-50% and barely touch its previous peak.  

• The Government Shutdown caused this Volatility … because for 42 days, we traded in complete darkness.  We had: no jobs numbers, no GDP updates, and no inflation data.  Volatility exploded because nobody knew what was happening.  The volatility index (VIX) jumped 50% in November - hitting 27.8 on November 20th.  That was the 11th largest monthly spike in history.  Then September’s unemployment rate rose to 4.4% (the highest in ~4 years).

• Volatility is raging … The SPX had a 144-point expected move for the week, and we landed right on the lower edge – exactly where the market said we would.  Volatility is not backing down.  The VVIX remains above 110, and the SPX expected move for next week is + / - 150 points == in only 3.5 trading days.  Volatility is telling us that the lows in this market are yet to come. 

• Credit Default Swaps (CDS) … appeared in more conversations last week than in the previous 15 years combined.  Institutions are positioning credit default swaps around AI companies and major banks – signaling deep-seated structural concerns.  These aren't just hedges, but rather preparations for systematic pressure that most traders won’t see coming.

• Buffett sees something changing beneath the surface … When the greatest value investor alive buys Google at all-time highs with volatility raging, you're watching genius at work.

•  Tip #2: Buy Google (+58% YTD) because Buffett’s a genius.

• Concentration Risk is amplifying the underlying sector weakness … Friday's session exposed how manufactured this rally has become.  Financials were flat despite all the financial plumbing talk.  Bitcoin is now officially down YTD despite DJT’s shenanigans.  Energy barely moved.  When Nvidia’s artificial support of an entire index fell apart via options, correlation returned and everything fell together. 

  • Friday had almost 100m option contracts traded.  It was one of the top 5 option days of the year, and almost all of it was in a few products (NVDA, TSLA, and the S&Ps). 

  • It tells us that the ‘Cart is leading the Horse’ = Option activity is leading the Equity marketplace.

  • Over 80% of the options volume was in Zero DTE (Days till Expiration) products == (aka ‘There is No Tomorrow’). 

• If you don’t like buying PUT Options… consider the following ETFs:

  • Tip #3: SQQQ … the UltraPro Short QQQ – 3x leverage,

  • Tip #4: TZA … the Small Cap Short – 3x leverage, and

  • Tip #5: FNGD … the FANG+ Inverse ETF.

•  SPX Expected Move (EM):

  • Last Week’s move = $144 … in 5 trading days, and we ended on the lower edge of the EM @ 6590.

  • Next Week’s move = $150 … for only 3.5 trading days.

• Factually:  This week: (a) we found out where the key support levels are.  (b) We saw some short-term buy signals and buy-the-dip activity.  (c) Long-term sentiment indicators are sounding some warning signs.  (d) The current technology capex cycle appears to be extended.  And (e) it’s important to layout and quantify downside (and upside) risks.  Overall, the initial wave of the latest risk-off episode looks to have completed with markets finding support (and clarifying their key trigger points).  Short-term we could get a Thanksgiving rally, but the numerous and varied pressures building up in the system caution against any complacency.

   

  HODLs: (Hold-On for Dear Life)

  - Reduce:

  o (-) IBIT – Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF ($48.18 / in at $24)

  o (-) Bitcoin (BTC = $85,200 / in at $4,310)

  o (-) Ethereum (ETH = 2,760 / in at $310)

  - Increase:

  o (+) Physical Commodities = Gold @ $4,062/oz. & Silver @ $49.6/oz.

  o (+) ICSH (short term bonds = 4.65% yield == paid monthly) =  https://stockanalysis.com/etf/icsh/dividend/ 

  o (+) GLD – Gold ETF ($374.2 / in at $212)

  o (+) SLV (silver ETF) == ($45.3 / in at $27)

  o (+) GDX (gold miners) == ($73.6 / in at $52)

   

  Please be safe out there!

• _{Expressed thoughts offered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can subscribe by visiting: https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com/subscribe.}

• _{Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <[email protected]> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> and/or https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com}

• If you'd like to see R.F. in action - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing.

• Creativity = https://youtu.be/n2QiPSe_dKk 

• Sales = https://youtu.be/blKw0zb6SZk

• Startup Incinerator = https://youtu.be/ieR6vzCFldI

• To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

• Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

• Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

• PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

• Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

• All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

To Subscribe: https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com/subscribe

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>  and/or
https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com.

Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:[email protected]>

http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com

https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com