This Week in Barrons: 3.23.2025

In partnership with

• George Foreman … May you Rest-in-Peace.

• Be careful what you wish for America.  Many have long believed that Washington, D.C. was broken because it was constructed for survival and minimal management – versus superior performance.  Currently, we’re transplanting successful business people into Washington D.C., because we figure if they built stuff in private industry that was efficient and successful – they should be able to fix our government’s efficiency issues.  [Aka: If you can dodge a wrench, you can most certainly dodge a ball.].  The only problem is that government is not an entrepreneurial start-up – where tax breaks and private equity can bail you out.  Additionally, the hundreds of thousands of people in the public sector matter more than we can quantify.  Their contributions to our society are immeasurable, and they do not have an accounting line item associated with them.  My only question is: What are the metrics we’re using to determine success vs failure?  AND, based upon those – When do we return to embracing reality?’

• Most older adults (myself included) … (without overhanging financial worries) are happier in their 80s than in their 70s, and in their 70s over their 60s – because:

  1. Modern medicine has given older adults pain management options … allowing us to continue to be more active.

  2. We’ve gained a better understanding of our aging brains … allowing us to reorganize our neural networks and continue to learn and heal over time.

  3. We’re more grateful and content as we age … despite our loss of loved ones and a decline in our own capabilities.

  4. We live more in the present … and rarely make plans that extend further than 15 months into the future due to the uncertainties of life.

  5. We appreciate relationships more than ever … and have given up jobs and responsibilities in favor of spending time with those closest to us.

• “Moore’s Law” for AI is at ~7 months … That is to say, the task-length that an AI agent can complete autonomously – has been doubling every 7 months since 2019.

• Fundstrat's Tom Lee: “This is the 5th fastest correction in history.  ALL previous rapid corrections found $SPX higher 3, 6, and 12 months afterward.  A bottom is likely in, absent a recession.”

• Where is Apple's Intelligence?  Their stock is falling after delays in Siri’s AI feature set.  Investors worry about innovation slowing inside of AAPL.  This could be a short-term dip, but where will increased earnings come from?

• The FED will slow its balance sheet runoff process.  In April, the monthly cap of Treasuries that will be allowed to mature and not be replaced will drop from $25 to $5B. To that end, our FED held interest rates steady this week, and re-confirmed 2 rate cuts during 2025. At which point Pres. Trump tweeted: “The FED would be much better off CUTTING RATES as U.S. Tariffs start to ease their way into the economy.”

• Apple TV+ comedy "Ted Lasso" … was renewed for another season.

• Tres. Sec. Scott Bessent: “The White House is preventing a financial crisis” … and is focused on averting a downturn: “What I can guarantee is that without our changes, we would have had a financial crisis.  I’ve studied it.  I’ve taught it.  Spending at our previous levels was unsustainable.”

• With China building AI at 1% of the cost of GPT 4.5 … we're likely witnessing the start of a global AI price war.  This strategy could force Western competitors to slash rates, and further democratize access to advanced AI worldwide.

• The CEO of Y Combinator reported that … nearly a quarter of their current startups have 95% of their code written by AI.  This allows small teams to reach $10m in revenue with dramatically fewer engineers.

• OpenAI believes that in 2025 AI will permanently … surpass humans at programming.  This will allow virtually anyone to create software.

• U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in February …  fueling concerns about our overall economic outlook.

• Alphabet purchased the cybersecurity startup Wiz for $32B … making it the largest acquisition in company history.  But there's a catch, Alphabet will have to pay Wiz a $3.2B termination fee if regulators nix the tie-up. 

• Anthropic just added web search capabilities to Claude …  giving its AI assistant access to real-time information and it closed a major feature gap with competitors like ChatGPT and Gemini.  [FYI: Obtaining real-time information is the key to beating standard search.]

• Tesla sales peaked in 2023 and just keep falling … over +17% in the past 12 trading days due to: insider selling, reduced delivery targets, improved competitive technology (EV Charging), and deteriorating public opinion.

• Chinese auto maker BYD announced its new charging abilities … 5 minutes of charging adds 248 additional miles.

•  Apple is shaking up the leadership of Siri … replacing the head of Apple Intelligence with Vision Pro’s Mike Rockwell.  [FYI: The Vision Pro was more of a concept than a real product – exactly the same issue that Apple Intelligence has.]

• 83% of money managers plan to buy digital assets in 2025 …  and are asking for more tokenization, stablecoins, and DeFi.  This proves that ‘crypto skeptics’ is code for: ‘soon-to-be crypto fans’.

• Minnesota would like to join 23 other states … asking to hold BTC reserves, and accept taxes in crypto – all the while Federal lawmakers are stalling.

• The SEC dropped its case against Ripple – the latest in the lighter regulatory touch being applied to the crypto industry.

• The US gold holdings are valued at ~$42 an ounce … while real gold is ~$3,050/oz. on the open market. 

  TIP #1: The Bill to Establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve requires the Treasury to reprice our gold, and trigger a windfall profit of ~$1T dollars – within the next 250 days. [FYI: I wonder what would happen if we reprice our gold at 10X the market rate?]

• Kraken just bought Ninja Trader for $1.5B … merging a 24/7 crypto powerhouse with an old-school finance house that still thinks 4 p.m. is closing time.  [FYI: What can possibly go wrong?”]

• USDT (the stablecoin) is the seventh-largest holder of U.S. Treasuries … outpacing Canada and Taiwan.

• BlackRock just realized that ‘staking’ may help ETFs perform better … [FYI: That’s ground-breaking stuff from Wall Street’s brightest minds.]

• It’s sad that I use my phone calculator … every time I need to figure out a tip.  A couple days ago someone asked me which month “10” is, and it took me 10 seconds to respond.  I’m becoming dumber, and we’re all developing that same disease.  The parts of our brains that were responsible for doing important things have atrophied, after being taken over by: automatic calendars, voices that continuously give us directions, and AI agents that do (or will do) everything else.  Even the part of me that used to sit and read – now lives in a room with an iPhone attached to the wall.  The 2 graphs above show a clear (Dumb ‘n Dumber) inflection point around the year 2012.  Well, 2012 was the first year that Apple sold more than 100m iPhones.  So, it’s not a coincidence that 2012 is the year when science, reading, math, numeracy, and literacy all took nose-dives.  Soon, I suspect Siri will capture our reasoning and problem-solving elements as well.

• Berkshire Hathaway notched its ninth record high close YTD … while the S&Ps finished negative.  That brings 2025 gains to +17%.  Berkshire Hathaway is the only large company in the S&P index that hasn’t seen a pullback of at least 10% from a 52-week closing high.  Warren Buffett did what he’s always done: He avoided paying high prices in an overheated market. Not long ago, some prominent investors mocked Buffett’s choice to hold so much cash as stocks soared.  Now, the market is rewarding his discipline, and history suggests Berkshire won’t be deploying its cash anytime soon.  Valuations are still stretched, and the Buffett Indicator (total stock market value divided by GDP) remains over two standard deviations above its historical trend line – suggesting froth.  Buffett has preached that patience is an investor’s most powerful asset.  When he finally makes his move into this wobbly market, many on Wall Street will wish they had the cash to follow his lead because: “Cash, makes no enemies.”

• Good News:

  - The S&P500 gained +0.5% last week – breaking its 4-week losing streak.

  - The market is sitting just above the ~5600/5650 support area. 

  - Traders have been buying the short-term oversold dip.

  - The materials and energy sectors remain positive YTD.

  - Even if it’s a bear market, we may get a seasonal bounce.

  TIP #2: There’s more money to be made faster – when markets are moving lower.

• Bad News:

  - The SPX’s 50-day tells us that the short-term trend is lower.

  - The SPX remains below its 200-day moving average.

  - The S&Ps can’t break over 5700, and are looking to retest 5500.

  - Insiders are STILL NOT BUYING their own stocks.

  - There are multiple medium/longer-term downside risk signals.

• Overall per Callum Thomas: What I am seeing is that a lot of short-term, tactical indicators (sentiment and math) are oversold == buys, but all of the medium-to-longer term indicators are bearish and not even close to nearing a BUY.

• The volatility futures are bizarrely flat … meaning that 26-day risk equals 89-day risk.  It’s like the market is whispering: ‘Brace for impact.’

• This market is less about trade Timing – than trade Structure.

  This market moves in large chunks; therefore, structure your trades to minimize risk and take advantage of the high volatility / bi-polar market actions. 

  TIP #3: Construct your trades as In/Out Option Spreads – mitigating risk and allowing the volatility to work in your favor.

• TIP #4: Goldman Sachs (GS): Look to fade the bounce: Apr 17 - +$565 / - $560 In / Out Put Spread

• TIP #5: Gold (GLD): … Play the pullback (nothing goes up forever): and use the same structured trade as on GS – giving yourself 30-45 days.

• TIP #6: Germany (EWG) .. Fade the move due to their interest rates exploding higher … give yourself until July 18 for an In / Our PUT Spread.

• Trade Structure currently beats Timing.  Use it to:

  - Mitigate your risk by using In / Out Option Spreads.  

  o Give yourself 45 to 90 days, and

  o Automatically take the trade off as soon as you get a 30% gain.

  - Until any of the political / economic uncertainties clear, Fade every Rally.

• The S&P (SPX = $5667) Expected Move (EM):

  - Last Week’s EM = $136, and we were FLAT on the week.

  - Next Week’s EM = +/- $109.  I am still looking for us to work-off a short-term, oversold condition – up to SPX == 5750 – then SELL / FADE the move.  Oh, and by the way, this marketplace is about to deliver every ounce of that predicted volatility next week.

• The Bitcoin (IBIT = ~$47.7) Expected Move (EM):

  - Next Week’s EM = +/- $2.7 … a 5.5% EM for the week!

• HODL’s: (Hold-On for Dear Life)

  - (+) PUBLIC.com Bond Portfolio (6.9% yield)

  - (+) IBIT – Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF ($47.7 / in at $24)

  - (+) Physical Commodities = Gold @ $3028/oz. & Silver @ $33.5/oz.

  - Bitcoin (BTC = $84,300 / in at $4,310)

  - Ethereum (ETH = 2,000 / in at $310)

  - (+) GLD – Gold ETF ($278 / in at $212)

  - (+) SLV – Silver ETF ($30 / in at $29)

• Options for Income:  The act of De-Risking a Portfolio… (using IBIT for example)

  - BUY-n-HOLD the IBIT ETF

  - BUY PUTs: 1 Std. Dev. Lower, Expiring = 3-weeks away, OTM (out-of-the-money) for protection.

  - SELL Covered CALLs: 0.75 to 1 Std. Dev. Higher, Expiring = 2-weeks away, OTM for income and to finance the PUTs.

• ‘De-Gen’ Economy:

  - Apple (AAPL = $218 / in at $220)

  - Robinhood (HOOD = $44.3 / in at $42)

  - Singapore (SE = $126 / in at $107)

  - Philip Morris (PM = $151.5 / in at $131)

  - CME Exchange (CME = $263.3 / in at $238)

  - CBOE Exchange (CBOE = $214.7 / in at $197)

   

  Please be safe out there!

• _{Expressed thoughts offered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can subscribe by visiting: https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com/subscribe.}

• _{Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <[email protected]> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> and/or https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com}

• If you'd like to see R.F. in action - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing.

• Creativity = https://youtu.be/n2QiPSe_dKk 

• Sales = https://youtu.be/blKw0zb6SZk

• Startup Incinerator = https://youtu.be/ieR6vzCFldI

• To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

• Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

• Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

• PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

• Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

• All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

To Subscribe: https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com/subscribe

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>  and/or
https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com.

Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:[email protected]>

http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com

https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com