This Week in Barrons: 9.14.2025

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•  Making-a-Point is not the same as Making-an-Impact … Making a point doesn’t take very long and it can be gratifying in the moment.  Making an impact happens over time and rarely brings the same sort of short-term glee.

• Try looking for things that aren’t moving … A frog has no trouble grabbing a fast-moving fly in midair.  But sit that same fly on a leaf – it’s safe = essentially invisible to the frog. Per Seth Godin: We’re like frogs sometimes. We choose to pay attention to things when they’re changing, not when they feel normal.  (a) If you want something to get noticed, move it.  (b) If you’re trying to improve your situation, try looking for things that aren’t moving but could be improved.

• Nobody has any time … According to Seth G. it’s easy to announce that we don’t have time for a new skill or a generous act.  The truth is we probably could find the time, but what we lack is the energy or motivation.  Therefore, first find the energy and motivation – and then you’re more likely to find the time.

• Investors thrive while Consumers suffer …  For investors: stocks, gold and crypto hover near records, corporate earnings are strong, and AI hype is real.  For consumers: Dollar stores are seeing more customers, high borrowing costs are putting pressure on homebuyers and business owners, and affordability is strained.

• Texas, California, Florida, New York and North Carolina … are responsible for a majority of the economic growth happening right now. Those also happen to be the states with significant tech activity that include Silicon Valley, Austin, Miami, El Segundo, the Research Triangle Park, and Silicon Alley.  It makes sense that the economic growth is happening in these areas, but the fact that we’re not seeing any growth in other states is indeed troubling. 

• Gold has experienced record highs in 2025 … being up +40% YTD.  Goldman is thinking that $5,000/oz. is a good target in 2026.  Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said that a well-diversified portfolio holding between 10% and 15% of gold could help protect clients from a potential debt-induced economic heart attack.

• We all saw 2008 coming … We saw the same credit default swap data, watched the housing numbers implode, and realized that the leverage ratios made no mathematical sense.  The difference wasn't information - it was the ability to ACT on what we knew.  17 years later, Apple is trading 200,000 option contracts against 8 million shares of stock in the first five minutes of the day.  At 100 shares of stock / option contract, think about that math.  The tail is wagging the dog.  Trillion-dollar market cap companies are moving based upon algo-hedging – not fundamentals.  Real systemic risk is building in the options market as they try to stay delta neutral on positions that are 25 times larger than the underlying stock volume.  When this unwinds (and it will) – it won’t be pretty.  Watch the options flow and cash-out before someone asks: “Are you going to be OK tomorrow?”

• Zoox (by Amazon) just rolled out its custom-built robotaxis … on the Las Vegas Strip.  This makes Amazon the first to offer fully autonomous rides in vehicles designed from the ground up for driverless operation.  Zoox’s robotaxi has no steering wheel, pedals, or driver’s seat, with only two rows of seats facing each other for up to four passengers. While Waymo dominates with retrofitted consumer cars across five cities and Tesla promises dual-purpose vehicles, Zoox is going all-in on purpose-built pods that look nothing like traditional cars. With a factory ready to pump out 10K vehicles annually, Amazon is betting that custom design beats adaptation.

• Who’s losing their jobs?  Junior roles have declined 23%, while senior roles have risen 14%.

• Payroll revisions from March 2024 to March 2025 … were adjusted downward by -911,000 jobs.  With the public data being this bad, Treas. Sec. Scott Bessent called on our FED to “recalibrate.” “It turns out that we didn’t have good facts,” Bessent said, with restraint.  “Alternative facts.  Bad facts.  At this point, I’ll take any fact.  Give it to me straight.  Call me old-fashioned, but facts shouldn’t have adjectives attached to them.”

• Apple’s AirPods Pro 3 … powered by Apple’s AI tech, will soon offer live translation to help users hold conversations in different languages.

•  In 5 years, the S&P has gained less than 4% / yr. in real purchasing power.

• Traders now see a 25-basis-point rate cut as table stakes next week … and this could become a sell-the-news event – depending upon Powell’s Q&A.

• Oracle's stock surged by 40% … after revealing $455B in future AI infrastructure contracts, including a massive $300B deal with OpenAI.  This pushed Oracle founder Larry Ellison past Elon Musk as the world's richest person.

• Tom Lee is looking for Bitcoin == $200,000 by EOY …  and Sept. 17^th is when our FED pivots, mortgages ease, stocks catch a bid, and suddenly every asset with a ticker goes vertical.  Lee thinks BTC tags $200K, ETH rides the small-cap rally, and Q4 turns into a blow-off top & insane price action fest.

• Gemini, the Winklevoss twins’ crypto exchange … raised $425m in its Nasdaq debut and closed +14% with a $3.8B valuation.  It’s another win for the resurgent IPO market despite Gemini’s continued unprofitability.

• Multicoin Capital, Jump Crypto (crypto’s largest trading firm), and Galaxy (crypto’s largest financial conglomerate) … have successfully led a $1.65B PIPE into Forward Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: FORD).  It’s a SPAC where the net proceeds will be used to initiate a Solana treasury company.  [FYI: Why can’t I just buy SOL for myself?]

• Speaking of "digital" money … something is brewing that very well may lead Gold to heights even I never thought possible.  The World Gold Council (WGC) – an industrial trade group, is beginning a pilot program in London to test digitizing gold.  They’re creating a new digital unit called "Pooled Gold Interests" (PGIs).  These PGIs would function as a digital representation of a fractional ownership interest in specific, allocated physical gold stored securely in London.  In the pilot, major banks and trading houses will co-own the underlying gold in a trust structure, allowing for the digital transfer of gold as collateral for the first time.  This could unlock dormant value by allowing gold to be used as collateral or to meet margin requirements – something that is currently difficult with a static physical asset.  If this works, gold could see an increase in demand that pushes it well north of $7k / ounce.

• OpenAI is throwing its resources behind "Critterz," … an AI-generated animated feature that aims to prove AI can help create strong films while cutting Hollywood production costs and timelines.  The team hopes to complete the feature in 9 months with a sub-$30m budget – compared to the typical 3 year + $100m budgets.  AI’s current disruption of Hollywood has been more of a hush-hush integration of tools, with a lot of creatives and consumers still taking a strong anti-AI stance.  I’d bet on Critterz successfully hitting its timeline and goals, but audiences embracing an openly AI film will be a tougher hurdle.

• Background:

  o The stagflation setup nobody's discussing … University of Michigan inflation readings came in at 4.8%, well above the Fed's 3% target – while crude oil remains stuck below $65.  This combination has historically created stagflation conditions that devastate portfolios.

  o Consumer sentiment is below Great Recession levels … When 60% of GDP comes from consumer spending, and confidence is this low – the math gets ugly fast.

  o The volume warning on ATHs …  The SPY hit 52-week highs on one-third average volume.  That’s a distribution signal that precedes major tops.

  o The defensive rotation begins … as utilities, metals, and consumer staples show strength while growth sectors falter.

• We finished at the upper edge of the Expected Move (EM)…  Last week we had a 30/70 Advance/Decline line, and we still managed to finish at the upper edge of the EM.  That’s because trillions of dollars of options will expire this coming Friday; therefore, all that matters is liquidity, currency, and technology.  This market’s liquidity concentration has never been greater, and it’s all focused on buying/selling options in 9 or 10 products such as: SPY, SPX, VIX, TSLA, NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT, AVGO, etc. 

•  Next Wednesday = our FED speaks… FED Futures are telling us that there’s a 94% chance of a 25bps rate cut next Wednesday. 

•  Next Friday = a Triple-Witching Expiration…  This may break the record for the largest, one-day options expiration in history.  The options repositioning will start before the FED meeting and will give us an entire week of elevated volatility.  Tip #1: IF VVIX goes over 110, then ‘duck-n-cover’.

• Goldilocks may be an illusion … If the upcoming economic data releases are bad, the marketplace is going to scream that our FED is behind the curve – again.  Economists will start using the ‘Stagflation and Recession’ words, and that’s when Bad Data is Bad for Markets.

• SPX Expected Move (EM):

  o Last Week’s EM = $86 … and we moved ~$88 higher.

  Next Week’s EM = $94 … and I will continue to take the OVER on this.

   

• Tip #2:  GS believes that Gold (GLD) is on a mission to $5,000/oz. – Silver (SLV) is along for the ride.

• Tip #3:  Buy the Metal Miners (GDX) = higher gold prices = higher margins.

• Tip #4:  Watch ETH (ETHA) – Altcoins could just be warmin’-up!

• Tip #5:  Watch the 20-dma for IBIT & ETHA.  I nibbled as they moved above their respective 20-dma’s on Friday.

   

• Factually: (a) Tech and Bitcoin both peaked in August when investor allocations to equities reached a record high.  (b) Continued weak labor data makes the odds of a 25bps FED rate cut on Wednesday very likely.  Overall: While tech stocks have been riding a wave of strong fundamentals, the comparable numbers get more difficult going deeper into the year.  Headwinds include: a softening labor market, rising inflation risks, and ‘stagflation’ continuing to be front-n-center.

• HODL’s: (Hold-On for Dear Life)

  -  (+) IBIT – Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF ($66.38 / in at $24)

  - (+) ETHA – Ethereum ETF ($35.36 / in at $13.5)

  - (+) Physical Commodities = Gold @ $3,680/oz. & Silver @ $42.6/oz.

  - Bitcoin (BTC = $115,900 / in at $4,310)

  - Ethereum (ETH = 4,700 / in at $310)

  - (+) GLD – Gold ETF ($335.4 / in at $212)

   

• Options for Income:  De-Risking a Portfolio… (using IBIT for example)

  - BUY-n-HOLD the IBIT ETF

  - BUY PUTs: 1 Std. Dev. Lower, Expiring = 3-weeks away, OTM (out-of-the-money) for protection.

  - SELL Covered CALLs: 0.75 to 1 Std. Dev. Higher, Expiring = 2-weeks away, OTM for income and to finance the PUTs.

   

• ‘De-Gen’ Economy:

  - Chainlink (crypto) == LINK: ($25.2 / in at $19.4)

  - Aave (crypto) == AAVE: ($319 / in at $254)

  - GDX (gold miners) == ($69.65 / in at $52)

  - SLV (silver ETF) == ($38.3 / in at $27)

   

  Please be safe out there!

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