This Week in Barrons: 9.21.2025

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•  Walmart is having a tech revival … and at the center of it is Sparky, the smiling digital assistant in Walmart’s app.  You can ask Sparky for reorders, returns, or product suggestions – and it acts more like a helpful buddy than a faceless search bar.  Sparky’s goal is to have you trust it with your shopping cart.  Sparky isn’t just fetching toothpaste; he’s learning how to predict your entire shopping rhythm.  The plan is for it to grow into a personal shopping guide that makes Walmart feel more like a data-hub / concierge – than just a big-box store.

• Something is going on in Commodities … that only comes along once every few years.  Per Callum Thomas: The chart above tells us that whenever the Commodities Ex-Gold vs Gold ratio plunges to an extreme low and then turns up (just as it has) – this has flagged the start of a new and substantial cyclical bull market in commodities and in Gold.  Ultimately, what we have here is a rotation that is shifting away from the tailwinds that have pushed gold prices up ~100% over the past 2.5 years, and the arrival of tailwinds for the rest of the commodities. The 3 factors that are the foundation of this new bull market are:

  o Capex is turning from thinking to doing – in all the growth areas,

  o A Global Economic Upturn is easing the US’s financial conditions and emphasizes resilience over another recession.

  o And Growing Risk-On Signs include advancing global equities, and sentiment moving past the post-tariff tantrum shakeout.

  - With some of the risk drivers fueling the demand for gold facing, now is the time for other commodities to lead.  

• Tip #1: Add Silver (SLV) and the miners (GDX) to your commodity holdings.

•  Our FED cut rates 25bps on Wednesday to 4.00% - 4.25% … and signaled that more cuts are likely.   Rate cuts will push asset prices (stocks, gold, and bitcoin) to much higher levels.  We’re being asked to ignore:

  o Our government’s own data misleading our FED into believing inflation was much higher than it was.

  o Our FED becoming politicized to the point of cheering against the current administration’s economic plans.

  o And our own FED flip-flopping about being ‘data dependent.’ 

  When our FED cut interest rates with asset prices near all-time highs, I heard Anthony Pompliano scream: “Get your rain boots on.  Liquidity is coming, and investors will be happy.”

• US household net worth jumped by +$7.1T in Q2 2025 … and for 3-straight months, U.S. households added an average of +$79B in net worth per DAY.

• The rich are getting much richer … Currently, the bottom 50% of U.S. households now hold just 2.5% of total U.S. wealth.  All the while, the top 1% now hold $40T more wealth than the bottom 50% combined.

• Google’s Chrome browser is rolling out Gemini … This will give users the ability to ask Gemini (Google’s AI Agent) to clarify content, compare information across tabs, and recall past browsing sessions.  Google is also testing agentic features that will let Gemini act on a user’s behalf – from filling shopping carts to rescheduling deliveries.

• Google’s Gemini became the top free iPhone app… after Nano-Banana drove +500m imaging edits.  From its launch on Aug. 26 to Sep. 9, the Gemini app saw 23m new users. 

• 73% of ChatGPT’s time … is being spent answering personal questions.

• A U.S. investor group is nearing a deal with Beijing … that would give it an 80% stake in TikTok’s U.S. business, but control of the app’s recommendation algorithm remains unresolved. 

• China banned its tech giants from buying Nvidia’s AI chips …  that cuts Nvidia off from the Chinese market and signals the U.S.-China chip war is on.

• Waymo is moving beyond the traditional robotaxi turf … and partnering with tech transit startup Via to weave its autonomous vehicles directly into city-run public transit.  In a Phoenix, Arizona suburb, Waymo driverless rides cost just $2, with fares for seniors & disabled riders = $1, and students ride for = FREE.

• Nvidia just invested $5B in Intel for a 4% stake. The two will co-build CPUs and PCs with Nvidia GPUs inside.  This tie-up could revive Intel’s AI relevance while turning up the heat on AMD.

• The iPhone 17 Pro Max is already out-of-stock … in many Asian markets, with up to 4 weeks of shipping time.  This was the 1st time since 2020, that Apple has introduced several new iPhone designs concurrently.

•  BlackRock is laying the groundwork to bring ETFs onto the blockchain … and industry analysts are saying that the move feels inevitable given the industry-wide shift toward digitization.  This could completely change how investors access, trade, and settle securities.

• The crypto (XRP) that wants to replace SWIFT … and the crypto (DOGE) that was designed as a joke – had their respective ETFs go live last week.

• Grayscale Investments ushered in a new twist to crypto investing … rolling out the first multi-token exchange-traded product available in the U.S.  Their CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF began trading Friday on the NYSE under the ticker GDLC.  The fund bundles together the 5 largest and most liquid digital assets: Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana, and Cardano – capturing +90% of the entire crypto market cap under a single ETF.

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• Google Glass is back … only from the META point-of-view.  New Ray-Ban branded smart glasses will come with a heads-up display for voice commands, notifications, and navigation.  The glasses work with Meta’s wristband, allowing for gesture control.  The heads-up display, visible over the right eye only, supports Meta AI features and message input via finger swipes.  The Ray-Ban META (Gen 2) model also adds +8 hours of battery life, 3K video, and live translation.  [FYI: Can you say: “Everything Old is New again.”]

• AI agents will soon make payments on your behalf: Google has introduced the Agent Payments Protocol (AP2), which allows AI agents to make purchases for users.  Agents can handle complex tasks, from booking flights and hotels to coordinating product bundles, while ensuring auditable human intent and authorization.  More than 60 merchants and financial platforms like Mastercard, PayPal, and American Express are on board.  Google says AP2 keeps transactions verifiable with cryptographically signed records.  This matters because AI agents are becoming autonomous shoppers, and having secure, trusted payment rails is a critical step for a mainstream leap.

• Our FED’s first interest rate cut in a year … doesn’t fit neatly into the usual motives for monetary policy.  Normally, the central bank eases for one of two reasons: (a) to Rescue an economy from recession risks and/or (b) to Catalyze a new expansion.  While policymakers will point to weakness in the labor market as the primary reason for September’s move, there is a third motive at play.  Our FED must transition from a restrictive regime into one shaped by AI’s deflationary force and tariffs that have proven less inflationary than expected.  Our FED’s own economists still project Q3 GDP to hit 3.4% - hardly a recessionary signal. 

• Triple Witching cast a spell … as most of the big options were ‘rolled over’ to live and reconcile another day. 

• Our FED cut 25bps, Bonds sold off, and the Dollar reversed higher.  It’s interesting that Bonds sold off – causing the 10-year to move significantly higher – even with a rate cut. 

• TIP #2: If the Dollar continues to move higher – look for commodities (including bitcoin and gold) to move lower.

• Every day we find-a-way … these markets find-a-way to move higher whether it’s via the chip sector, Meta, and/or Tesla.  The option markets are driving-the-bus and continue to want to move higher.  For example, I thought that the volatility index (VIX) would move lower post-FED – but it did the exact opposite. 

• SPX Expected Move (EM):

  o Last Week = $94 … and we almost ended on the upper edge of the Expected Move.

  o Next Week = $84 … which tells me NOT to sell short-dated options – because you won’t be getting paid for them. 

  o  TIP #3: If you trade options … use SPREADS. 

• Factually: (a) The S&P500 remains in a strong uptrend, and resuming rate cuts has helped to unlock further new highs.  (b) Global equities are also going strong.  (c)  The wealth effects are speaking louder than soft jobs data.  And (d) There has been a surge in ETF launches recently. Overall, per Callum Thomas, while there are some concerning signs and signals, the trend is still up and the path of least resistance for stocks looks to be: “Higher for Longer”.   And as we look at this week’s economic session; the changing US economy currently means that macro soft spots are set to get painted over by wealth effects.  It could also be the case that further bad economic news could be good news for the markets.

   

• HODL’s: (Hold-On for Dear Life)

  -  (+) IBIT – Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF ($65.3 / in at $24)

  - (+) ETHA – Ethereum ETF ($33.5 / in at $13.5)

  - (+) Physical Commodities = Gold @ $3,719/oz. & Silver @ $43.3/oz.

  - Bitcoin (BTC = $115,500 / in at $4,310)

  - Ethereum (ETH = 4,400 / in at $310)

  - (+) GLD – Gold ETF ($339.1 / in at $212)

   

  Options for Income:  De-Risking a Portfolio… (using IBIT for example)

  - BUY-n-HOLD the IBIT ETF

  - BUY PUTs: 1 Std. Dev. Lower, Expiring = 3-weeks away, OTM (out-of-the-money) for protection.

  - SELL Covered CALLs: 0.75 to 1 Std. Dev. Higher, Expiring = 2-weeks away, OTM for income and to finance the PUTs.

   

  ‘De-Gen’ Economy:

  - Chainlink (crypto) == LINK: ($23.1 / in at $19.4)

  - Aave (crypto) == AAVE: ($295 / in at $254)

  - GDX (gold miners) == ($72.3 / in at $52)

  - SLV (silver ETF) == ($39 / in at $27)

   

  Per H. Thompson … ADDING a New Basket based upon AI.  Some of the companies that are included are:

  - NVDA, FN, TSM, CLS, IREN, ALAB, CRDO, and AEHR

   

  Please be safe out there!

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